Baylor +14.5 2.2% Play
As bad as Baylor has been and they have been bad, the oddsmakers have corrected them by 14 points and I see us having value on Baylor. I acutally feel like Baylor will be a profitable team to back this season and maybe I'm jumping on them too early, but I feel like it's a good spot. Duke just off a big win that nobody expected and they have their biggest rival in North Carolina on deck. Their head coach David Cutcliffe is better in my opinion in a dog role as he was last week.

Don't sleep on Baylor's HC Matt Rhule. I like the change he's announced this week at QB with Zach Smith taking over at QB. I was never a fan of the Arizona transfer, but I understood it fit Rhule's system more. This to me is a move to be more competitive in games and I think it will work. Smith played well in their surprising bowl victory over Boise State last year throwing for 375 yards 3 TD's and 1 INT while completing 71.8% of his passes against a Boise defense that ranked 38th.

Baylor lost 17-10 last week to UTSA, but the Road Runners are not a bad team at all. Many are picking them to finish first in the west in Conference USA ahead of Louisiana Tech. They nearly beat Arizona State last year. They beat a good MTSU team 45-25 on the road and only lost to Texas A&M 23-10 on the road.

Call me crazy, but I wouldn't even be shocked if Baylor won this game. The Big 12 is up this year I think that is evident and Rhule probably realizes the opportunities for wins will get harder with their next two games against Oklahoma and Kansas State on the road. This is a good opportunity to get the monkey off their back, but then again Rhule has said he'll continue to play freshmen football players which is keeping this from being a larger play for me and taking a shot at the moneyline.

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