Iowa -2.5 2.2% play
We bet Iowa last week and despite 4 turnovers they still managed a win in convincing fashion 24-3. Meanwhile Iowa State which is a trending team for sharp bettors got revenge on Northern Iowa, but they had to force 3 interceptions and 2 were returned for TDâs. They also gave up 13 plays of 15+ yards, and I donât see them being able to stop Iowaâs run game as they lost 5 starters on the defensive line. Now Matt Campbell was able to bring in a ton of JUCOâs for that unit, but it usually takes a second year for those guys to make a difference unless you are Bill Snyder.
The key to the game in my opinion is whether or not Iowa State can finally stop Iowaâs running game. In the end I am not confident they can do so with the changes on the defensive line. Iowaâs offensive line brings back their most experienced group in many years with 99 career starts along with Wadley at RB. Iowa went 8-1 when they rushed for 164+ yards last year with their only loss coming in their bowl game. Iowa State went 1-7 last year when they gave up 198+ yards and their lone win was to Kansas. Iowaâs offense did struggle against Wyoming that returned 8 starters, but that is very typical of an Iowa offense struggling in their first game.
This may seem like the year Iowa State gets a win, but I think Kirk Ferentz is just too good of a coach and he has 15 returning starters where it matters. The offensive line and 8 on defense. They held future NFL QB Josh Allen in check and stuffed the running game holding them to 3 points despite turning the ball over 4 times. Iowa State meanwhile returns just 11 starters and have weaknesses on the offensive and defensive line at least from an experience perspective and that usually is not a recipe for beating Iowa. Iowa is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games to boot.
