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VCU vs. JAMES MADISON- 7:00pm et
Marshall/E-Carolina- <>I usually hate settling with the public on games, but in this instance I think they are correct. East Carolina all the way! East Carolina is 10-4 at home while Marshall is 1-10 on the road. Marshall beat East Carolina earlier in the season, but history has shown that Marshal is 0-1 on the road when beating a team at home this year (Tulane). East Carolina is 3-0 at home when losing to that same team this year on the road (Rice, Tulane, Smiss). In the three victories at home East Carolina averaged a +11 differential in points from what they lost by on the road. (12, 9, 13) If this math is correct then they should beat Marshall by 3. East Carolina with some revenge in this spot played horrible defensively in the first match up. Marshall could not miss a shot (54.8FG%, 44 3pt%, 88% FT line) East Carolina was out rebounded, but mainly due to the fact that they did not have many opportunities. Marshall got to the FT line 11 more times and this was the difference in the game in my opinion. Looking over the stats I feel that Marshall just got hot on the right day as their season averages on the road as well in conference are far lower than what East Carolina does in conference and at home. Marshall shooting just 39.7fg% on the road that is a significant 15% drop in what they averaged in the first match up. Not to mention 69% from the FT line. If we take this match up deeper and break down conference match ups (both teams have played generally the same teams) we see that Marshall is a fraud here. East Carolina is better offensively and defensively in every major category (FG, 3P, and FT%). Rebound margin is -1.7 for Marshall and -1.8 for East Carolina, but East Carolina at home is far better at rebounding the ball and Marshall is at -3.2rebounds. I expect East Carolina to be motivated tonight with revenge. They will have a chip on their shoulder after giving up nearly 55% shooting from the field to a team that is shooting just 39.7% on the road. I expect quality defense and a big win here.
Take East Carolina -2 (7** play)<>
VCU/JMAD-<> JMad is 8-2ats their last 10 home games and they are 6-0ats in their last 6 games overall. They lost in OT on the road against VCU just 2 weeks ago and led at half by 2 in that game. They out rebounded VCU and played solid defense, but did not have the touch offensively. Something I think they can achieve here at home with revenge on their side. Last 5 games they are playing better offense scoring nearly 8 more points than their season average and 2.3% better from the field. We look at an earlier situation for VCU where they had crushed a team at home in NC Wilmington by 29points. They then traveled on the road to play the very same team as 16 point favorites, but lost the game outright by 9 points. Tonight it will be James Madion's turn to return the favor to VCU.
Take JMAD +3 (4** bonus play)<>
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