MLB Play of the Days (POD's):
78-39 (66.7%) +103.47 units of profit! (+$103,467)
We are going with the under in this one. Millwood has yet to give up a run this season to the Red Sox and despite the Red Sox with excellent numbers against him over his career they will be without Youkilis again and it will be a hole in their lineup. Which is why I'm liking the under here. My main cause for concern with Millwood is he has not gone into 7th inning in his last 7 starts meaning the game will fall to the bullpen in a close game. Good for Texas is their bullpen has been solid all year long with the 7th best bullpen behind the Mets. They are behind 2 AL teams one being Boston with the 2nd best bullpen.
Red Sox might not need their bullpen with Lester on the mound. He's coming off two solid performances on the road at TB and NYY, but did not get the win which should make him more motivated going here tonight against a team he gave up 2H and 11k's in a complete game win this year. Actually I think it is the perfect match up for Lester as the Rangers lead the league in K's and when Lester throws more than 8K's he is 7-0 and the Red Sox are 9-1 overall. I expect a similar performance and it will be a pitchers duel. Rangers get Kinsler back, but he's 1-12 against Lester. Rangers Nelson Cruz a HR threat is questionable and even if he plays I like Lester who has a 1.67 ERA over his last 4 road starts.
The Under trends. Rangers are under 37-15-2 against left handed starters and are under 37-14-2 at home. The under is 10-1-3 in Lesters last game 1 starts and for good reason as he is ready to make a solid start and he'll need one here tonight in what should be a "playoff like" atmosphere with Boston leading the Rangers by 1/2 game in the Wild Card.
Red Sox -138 as a bonus because of the numbers they have against Millwood over their career they will have some of their players back in the lineup and although Youkilis leaves a big hole in the lineup with his 7-15 against Millwood his replacements Lowell (20-59 vs. Millwood) Varitek (12-29 vs. Millwood), Kotchman (5-15 vs. Millwood) and Martinez (6-14).
