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Angels need this win in my opinion so they have some confidence because they will likely have to play the Red Sox in the playoffs. They are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings here and 4-0 when Saunders pitches. Overall they are 7-1 vs. Red Sox with Joe Saunders on the hill. However, that's not the only reason I'm picking the Angels here. Red Sox are left with a weakened lineup without Youkilis who is questionable and will probably play but with an injury how effective can he be? and without Victor Martinez. I'm also not too confident for the Red Sox with Paul Byrd on the mound. He is just going to have his hands filled with a solid Angels lineup. Byrd since joining the Red Sox rotation has hitters averaging a batting avg of .333 off him. He has pitched well at home, but tonight that ends.
Byrd in his last 3 starts vs. the Angels coming last year he went just 13 innings giving up 22 hits and 5 BB's with 12 ER. That's 27 base runners more than a 2.00 WHIP. Angels have a collective .288 average off Byrd most of those struggles coming from years prior, but Vlad leads the Angles with a .370 average off Byrd. Byrd is followed by a Boston bullpen that overall has been solid this year but has a 6.81 ERA in their last three with everyone with the exceptions of Wagner and Saito pitching poorly.
Saunders as I said has good numbers @ Boston with a 4-0 record and a 3.73 ERA. In Saunders last 4 starts he has really pitched with with 24.1 iP 5 ER 20H and 7 BB for a 1.87 ERA. Red Sox have a .252 average vs. Saunders while Martinez had .333 average and will be out tonight. Youkilis being otu would be an even bigger deal and leave a huge hole in that offense but as I said before I expect him to play tonight just showing how big of a game this really is for both of these teams confidence wise moving forward. Saunders only start this year vs. the Red Sox he threw 7 innings gave up 4 ER. He pitched well up until the 5th inning when he gave up a HR to Lowell, and then in the 7th giving up a HR to Bay for his 4 ER. The Red Sox got their moneys worth leaving just 3 runners on base. Again something I do not see happening here for them. The Red Sox do not hit lefties like they do righties at home. They are hitting 43 points in average lower at home vs. LHP than RHP and they are scoring 1.83 runs per 9 less vs. LHP than RHP. Angels bullpen has also been solid in the last 10 games with a 1.99 ERA. So again I'm expecting it to be a tough night for the Red Sox and a good amount of runs from the Angels.
