1-Dime Oddsline Error Play
[img:3q5t2y60]http://images.covers.com/covers/data/logos/mlb/bos.gif[/img:3q5t2y60] [b:3q5t2y60]vs.[img:3q5t2y60]http://images.covers.com/covers/data/logos/mlb/kc.gif[/img:3q5t2y60][/center:3q5t2y60]
[size=150:3q5t2y60][color=#FF0000:3q5t2y60][b:3q5t2y60]Freddy Wills's Pick[/color:3q5t2y60][/size:3q5t2y60]
[b:3q5t2y60]Take Royals -1.5 +140 (1-Dime Free Play) (1-5 scale)
I'm going with the Royals here behind Zach Greinke. Why not the money line? I don't see value for a 1-unit play on the money line of -155. Plus the way the Royals have been hitting gives me confidence behind Greinke. First thing you want to know is the public is all over the Red Sox at 65% because they are the Red Sox and the Royals are the Royals. However, Red Sox have not faced Greinke since 2007 which gives me reason to believe he will be his dominant self. I really like him to go out there and throw another great game as he is pushing for the Cy Young. Put yourself in his position he may never have another opportunity to win the Cy Young. He wants it and his teammates want to help him get it.
Greinke has a 1-0 record with a .45 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has a 1.80 ERA at night and at home he's 8-3 with a 1.82 ERA. At home he has 126 K's in 108.2 IP. Boston will struggle here tonight trying to make contact with Grenkes' pitches. Boston has been hitting well .302 6.31 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 vs. RHP. However, let the record state that he faced a trio of terrible RHP from the Orioles and then Lenny Dinardo from the Royals last night. The Red Sox are not a dominant road team especially vs. RHP. On the season they are 37-38 and they are scoring just 4.29 runs per 9 vs. RHP. That is 1.38 runs per 9 innings less than their averages vs. LHP and they are hitting 32 points lower in average as well. Along with all that when they lose on the road which has been 38 times and have lost 78.9% of those games by more than 1 run. That is what gives us the advantage here and the value is tremendous at +140! Why do I think the Royals will hit?
Paul Byrd has not been good as much as he has been lucky. He only gave up 3 ER to the Angels after allowing 9 hits in 5.1 IP. On the season he's given up 28 hits in 18.2 IP. This is the type of pitcher he has always been giving up many more hits than innings, but not walking many. This fits perfectly to the type of team the Royals are. They are not patient they are aggressive. They are 28th in BB's and 18th in K's which also means that they make contact with the ball. Last time Byrd faced a team like that which was also on the road was the White Sox. White Sox #18 in BB, and #23 in K's they torched him for 10 hits in 2.1 IP and 7 ER. I look for a similar output here tonight. The Red Sox will turn it over to a bullpen that has a 7.33 ERA in their last 3 and a 6.59 in their last 5.
