Jaguars @ Seahawks (4:15pm et)

[size=150:19oz8jpk][color=#FF0000:19oz8jpk][b:19oz8jpk]Freddy Wills's Pick[/b:19oz8jpk][/color:19oz8jpk]

In the beginning of the year I said these two teams were going to bet he two surprise teams in the NFL. The Jaguars are now 2-2 winning two games in a row and looked dominant last weekend while the Seahawks have struggled since they lost Hasselback, but have always dominated at home. Sunday they will be home sending the Jaguars on their longest trip in several years. It's hard to play in Seattle and I think they will struggle as Hasselback will return against the Jaguars tomorrow. I like the under the radar Seahawks team and I will back them here like I did against the Bears when they out gained them in every offensive category but lost mainly because of Olindo Mare's 2 missed field goals. That won't happen on Sunday. Mare won't be kicking 6 field goals with Hasselback at the helm or against the Jaguars defense that ranks 31st against the pass. Look for Hasselback to get it going early with the passing game and their deep WR core that features Branch, whose your mama, and Burelsson. Two trends dating back to the 1985 season that I love working against the Jaguars and for the Seahawks are:

Seahawks fall into a 46-21-1 ATS since the 1994 season where a team coming off an ATS loss of 3+ and going over by more than 3 now as a home favorite. Jaguars fall into a 14-43-2 ATS trend since 1985 season where a team is coming off a win and the over as a home dog now playing in an open stadium with artificial turf. Those teams are losing the game by an average margin of 10.3 points. Jaguars are due for a let down and you will see a much better Seahawks defense here on Sunday.

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