A 1-1 night guarantees us a profit here tonight! I'm pulling for the Angels and I can absolutely not pass up the value we are getting on the Angels and I'll tell you why. First of all every one is buying the Yankees Captain Crunch, but I'm still a little skeptical despite picking them in 7 games. Nearly 70% of the public is banking on the Yankees tonight, but I'm not going there! Don't worry about the weather this team will get this game in as the rain is supposed to be limited, but the wind and cold will play into the game.
C.C. Sabathia will take the mound for the Yankees and what many might not know is he is 3-3 with an ERA over 6 in his career in the post season. Those are games where it is genuinely colder than the regular season. While I'm not saying he's going to struggle because of the cold I am saying that this is not an easy pick for the Yankees as I expect a low scoring game and in a low scoring team you take the Angels who are more likely to manufacture runs with their speed and clutch hitting 1-9. In fact the Angels have a career .297 average against Sabathia in 209 AB. That does not matter much unless they score runs, and they are in 2009. Sabathia's two starts one at home and one on the road he gave up 5 and 4 ER for a total of 13.1 IP allowing 17 hits, 9 ER 11K's and 4 walks. What leads to Sabathia's struggles? Well besides the obvious that this Angels team is good and still... still flying under the radar, they will throw 8 right handed hitters out there tonight. They have a few switch hitters, and Bobby Abreu will be the only lefty. So who cares? Well Sabathia like any other lefty does not pitch as well against RH hitters. In fact right handed hitters are +.44 in average, +.53 OBP, and +1.19 OPS compared to what lefties are doing. Let's not check game 1 off for the Yankees so soon!
Lackey will go for the Angels and while he's used to pitching out in LA where it's nice and warm he is 3-3 with a 3.06 ERA in his career in the post season. I think this will give the pitchers the advantage here tonight over the hitters which is why I like the under. Lackey did not start in the new Yankee Stadium yet, but his previous 5 starts in New York were of quality with a 2.89 ERA. He can pitch on the road or at home with identical ERA's of 3.80 away and 3.86 at home. Mr. A-Rod a key part of the Yankees sweep of the Twins is 1-25 vs. Lackey since the 2005 playoffs. That is a huge hole just sitting in the #4 spot. We will see how A-Rod fares in the series against what is clearly a better rotation than the Twins brought to the ball park. Lackey's struggles when he gives up HR's so I'm sure he is glad it's going to be cold as the ball does not carry as well in New York this time of year.
The X-Factor! The Angels have that in their DNA this year it seems. They are one of those teams like the Twins were, but only the Angels have much much more talent. I liked the Twins in a couple games vs. the Yankees, but did not recommend it. Twins got up early, but their bullpen could never hold it out, but it still made the Yankees beatable when they were favorites -300 in some games in that series. Good luck with those odds. So why do the Angels have the X-Factor, they are 10-1 in their last 11 as a dog +151-200 and 19-7 in their last 26 as an under dog as they should be all series until Game #3. LA also 10-3 following an off day.
One more advantage tonight. It's a small one and I don't read into it very much, but the Angels hit lefties better on the road than they do righties. +.14 average, and +.88 runs per 9. Likewise the Yankees hit lefties at home better than righties, but they won't be facing a left handed starter. They'll get Lackey and the Yankees are -0.69 runs per 9 compared to left handed starters.
Angels are under 25-12-2 in Lackey's L39 starts where the total is 7-8.5.
Angels are under 9-2 in Lackey's L11 when Lackey is a dog.
Angels are under 5-1 in Lackey's L6 starts @ New York Yankees.
Yankees are under 13-3-1 in their L17 following a win.
Yankees are under 6-1-1 in their last 8 with Sabathia as a home favorite.
