Tulsa @ UTEP (8:00pm et)
[size=150:1m7yvhmu][color=#FF0000:1m7yvhmu][b:1m7yvhmu]Freddy Wills's Pick[/b:1m7yvhmu][/color:1m7yvhmu]
I'm going with Tulsa in this spot and I'll tell you why. For one everyone is making a huge deal about this game because UTEP beat Houston at home here in convincing fashion. Well there is a few things different here and I'm not buying into the hype on UTEP nor on Houston. Houston does not play defense they are ranked 111th overall, but more importantly they are ranked 115th against the run. Donald Buckram was amazing that day rushing for 262 yards making up for 42% of his rushing yards on the season. Actually 78% of his rushing yards have come in 3 games this year, Buffalo, Houston, and New Mexico State. The average rush defense from those three teams respectfully is 98th in the nation.
On Wednesday night they will face a rush defense ranked 32nd in the nation. Now for fairness they have only faced an average 75th rushing offense, but still against Boise State, and Oklahoma you have to be impressed with what this team has done on defense this year to stay in games. It does not stop there as they have an answer for the pass with the 42nd ranked passing defense. It has been proven in UTEP's losses that if they don't get out to a lead early they give up on the run. Against Memphis, Texas, and Kansas they fell behind early which led to Buckram's total 36 carries in the game. Why were these teams able to get out to the leads because their defense stopped the offense and it started with containing Buckram who was held to 135 yards rushing. I believe Tulsa can do this and with their offense I expect them to get a lead which could mean bad news for UTEP.
Tulsa will be going up against a defense that ranks 119th in the nation. Although they are much better than that as they have faced an average 43rd ranked offense you won't know it on Wednesday. Last year's meeting Tulsa was tied 28-28 against UTEP I remember this game because I had Tulsa. After that Tulsa started blitzing UTEP and they had no answer. It proves that Tulsa also has the better coach in Graham and despite UTEP having 4 extra days to prepare I'm still comfortable laying the TD. Tulsa is ranked 47th in total offense, but in my opinion has much to prove as they are much better than this facing two top 25 ranked defenses on their schedule thus far. They put up 77 points on this team last year and although I don't see quite a number Tulsa will be able to do much more with G.J. Kinne off his back as UTEP barely gets a pass rush. Expect the talented Johsnon receivers and Shelley to have a big game balanced with a Jamad Williams attack.
