First of all we can talk this match up comes down to two things. SMU's suspect run defense vs. Nevada's #1 running game, and Nevada's suspect #119 pass defense vs. SMU's #28 passing attack. Well along with those two things I also like SMU to have a bit of a motivational and emotional advantage which is more of a big deal than you realize. Nevada may come out a little flat because of the crushing loss to Boise in the WAC title game. They made that game closer than it really was at 44-33. Now SMU comes in without the nerves as they haven't been to a bowl game in 25 years, but enter June Jones the former Hawaii coach and in his second year this team is going bowling and ironically back to the place where June Jones used to play Nevada, Hawaii. I just believe SMU is going to come out wiht an intensity like no other in this game. While their rank says they are #100 in rushing game since Kyle Padron took over at QB it has really opened up the game and they do feature a 100 yard rusher in Shawnbrey McNeal.
Why can SMU stop the run? Well they really can't let's be honest here Nevada is going to runt he ball 90% of the time and are #1 in rush defense, but if they can make some opportunistic stops they will be right in the thick of things and that is what this defense has done all year. This rush defense is a little better than many are giving them credit for they are ranked #88 but faced a 61 rushing attack while Nevada #1 in rush offense has only faced an average 87th ranked opponent. Okay so there is one team that SMU played that can be compared to this game and that was Navy. Now Navy #4 in rushing the ball has a better defense than what Nevada has and in that game SMU lost in OT 35-38. Also note that Nevada's three headed monster rushing attack featuring three 1,000 rushers is going to be without one in monster Lippincott who is out for this game. The key for SMU is get their passing game going against Nevada and get out to a lead which shouldn't be a problem considering....
Nevada has not fared well against talented passing games and with Padron going to Sanders the all time SMU leading receiver it will mean trouble for Nevada. Emmanuel Sanders has 91 receptions 1,215 yards receiveing both records at SMU. He has speed to burn and get pick you apart when he goes deep or when he catches slant routes and gets yard after the catch. Remember June Jones knows Nevada as he is 4-0 against them in Honolulu. Also worth noting is that Nevada's defensive coordinator has left the program to take the coaching job at Portland State. This leaves Nevada in even more trouble in my opinion. Let's just go over the numbers here. Against Top 35 passing attacks which SMU falls under, Nevada game up 34.66 points per game and were 3-3. Only one game would have covered the spread they have here. SMU arguably has better defenses than Notre Dame (L0-35), Utah State (W35-32), Idaho (W70-45), Hawaii (31-21). This game should be extremely interesting and a shoot out in the end I think SMU will have a good shot at winning this game outright. Or worse case a back door passing TDs gets the cover.
