Ok there is no doubt in my mind that TCU plays in a far superior conference. Let's just look at the bowl games for instance. BYU, Air Force, Utah, and Wyoming all under dogs in their bowl games and won out right making the Mountain West Conference a solid conference. If TCU can close it out and win here tonight that would make them 5-0 in bowl games. Wyoming an 11 point under dog against a WAC Fresno State team won by a TD to open the bowl season. Utah and BYU took care of two Pac-10 teams and Air Force beat and flat out dominated the best offensive team in the country statistically. TCU really wants to join that club here tonight. Add in the fact that the other WAC team playing in a bowl game lost to SMU by 35 points as 11 point favorites. That's right Nevada the team that challenged Boise a little lost by 35 points and they were big favorites.
Of course we can't base our opinion solely on that information, but Boise who is known for their offense this year with Kellen Moore throwing for the highest passing efficiency in the nation and 39 TD and 3 INT has faced nobody defensively. They faced three teams with a total defense inside the top 70 and that was teams ranked 65th, 70, and 37. Oregon in game 1 held them to 19 points and lost, but TCU is much better than Oregon and from what we already saw from the PAC-10 we can say the MW Conference may just be better. Add in the fact that Moore's best option Austin Pettis was questionable for the game because of an ankle injury. He'll give it a go, but clearly won't be 100% which is a big deal against a solid defense. Pettis caught 14TD's this year.
These two teams met last year and while TCU only won by 1 point the story here is that they out gained Boise 472 to 250 yards. Andy Dalton threw an interception for TCU something I do not think will happen this year and his overall play is much more threatening than it was a year ago. Dalton has double the number of TD passes than a year ago with 22 and has thrown just 5 interceptions. He is completing 8.9 yards per pass and that's nearly 2 yards more than a year ago while he's rushing +0.7 ypc more than a year ago. Boise State has a solid defense, but they are vulnerable to the running game something TCU ranked #5 in the nation thrives on. Fresno State's Ryan Mathews gashed the Broncos front seven and the only other strong running game was Nevada a team that ran for 242 yards and Vai Taua having 160 with 6.7 yards per carry. TCU has faced defenses close to what Boise does and they have come out successful. They have faced 5 strong defenses ranked 19,29,11,20, and 54 respectfully. In those games they averaged 31.4 ppg and gave up 15.2ppg. TCU carries the #1 total defense and is stout on both sides passing and rushing. They held Boise to 1.6 yard per carry a year ago and should be able to do that again making Moore have to beat them. TCU shut down some good passing attacks this year including BYU 38-7 and Utah 55-28 both those teams beat up on Pac-10 teams in their bowl games.
Bottom line TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowls and although a TD seems like a lot it really isn't when you have a defense as good as this. TCU DE Jerry Hughes will have a huge game and will disrupt Kellen Moore. Moore may have only been sacked 5 times this year, but it was against some terrible pass defenses even Oregon the best total defense that Boise State has played had a #46 pass defense. TCU flies in at #64.
