Well these two teams are as even as you get on paper. Both solid offense, solid defenses, solid special teams and solid coaching. Normally in a situation like this you go with the under dog, but I just can't buy into a Texas team that has shown far more problems this year than the Tide. It just seems like that special year for Alabama and I'm a believer in that.
Alabama first off has faced a stronger schedule don't let anyone kid you on that. Particularly their defense has faced a 45th ranked rushing offense while Texas #1 run defense has faced the #74 attack. It's a mirage on the surface because Alabama who is going to run the ball goes up against a very talented front, but just how talented? Texas has been tested by just three decent running teams and those three were not close to what Alabama can do with their strength.
Alabama offense ranked slightly lower than Texas has faced a much much more challenging defense out of the SEC ranked #48 int he nation compared to Texas who has faced #76. And again it's the strength of the Texas offense that I can not take seriously here as they have faced an opponent with a average 76th pass defense. Maybe it is because so many Big 12 teams love to pass that the defense are under rated, but even so Texas has played only two defenses this year that are the caliber of an Alabama. Those two are Nebraska and Oklahoma. Those two games Texas I believe should have and could have easily won the game. I believe Alabama's defense is better than both of those teams and the offense may just be too. Nebraska held Texas to 13 points and sacked McCoy 9 times while Oklahoma held them to 16 points.
Alabama has been tested all season by top defense and this won't be anything new to McElroy and the crew. McElroy is under rated the guy has faced six top 20 pass defenses. I think he can beat Texas under neath throwing to Marquis Maze as the Longhorn secondary full of sophomores will have their eyes on the all world talent in Julio Jones. Alabama has faced six top 27 defenses many in the area that Texas is in. They averaged 24 ppg in all six and when they faced a Kentucky team that was 18th in pass defense they put up 38 points. I can see Alabama scoring around 24 points which should be plenty to win this game.
Alabama has been tested offensively too facing three opponents in the top 22 in offense and a three more in the top 50. Against the three top 22 offenses they held them to 13.67 ppg proving they can play in the big game that includes holding the Gators to 13 points in the SEC title game.
Texas on the other hand has not fared well against good offenses. They faced four top 26 offenses and gave up 24 points on average including 39 to Texas A&M team. There were many QB's that beat Texas all year long making them suspect against the pass. The fear you should have if you are going to back the Longhorns is they have not faced a rushing team as good as Alabama all year long. They have not faced an offensive line as talented as Alabama that is where the difference will be.
As I mentioned above against top offenses and top defenses Alabama seemed to play their best with a +10.33ppg advantage while Texas seemed to play worst scoring 14.9 and giving up 24. Bottom line is Texas won those games, but they have yet to play a team that can play offense and defense well outside Oklahoma but Oklahoma didn't have their best player on the field as he got injured in the first 5 minutes of the game.
What Texas does well is throw those short range passes and I look for McCoy to get picked off a couple times once maybe by the best linebacker in college football in Rolando McClain. He's best at dropping in coverage and should have an opportunity to make big plays here. With Cody at 6'5 and 354 int he middle making Texas unable to run the ball a one dimensional team.
