Charlotte sits a top of the A10 standings yet they are 9.5 dogs on the road where they are 7-4 this year to Dayton another top team that is desperate for a win. Let's not fall into the trap of a team needs a win they will get it. Dayton is that team here they are clinging to their NCAA Tournament hopes game in and game out. To be honest 4 or 5 teams will be heading to the tournament from the A10 Conference and of the top 6 in this conference Charlotte has the lowest RPI right now so you could make a case that if they win this game they could be an automatic winner to go to the tournament.
Now why I like Charlotte here tonight is because Dayton is coming off a huge 25 point victory to Xavier a team that did beat Charlotte. Dayton really really needed that game and they were on revenge against Xavier at home and that's a big factor. I believe they may have a little bit of a let down here against a Charlotte team that's not getting any respect as nearly double digit dogs. Charlotte beat this Dayton team last year in their home building and some of the faces are the same, but Charlotte is even better than they were a year ago particularly in their front court with Chris Braswell who is nearly averaging a double dobule and Shamari Spears a transfer has been amazing leading the team in points.
The factor I like the best is the guard play of Charlotte. Their guard play is far better than the guard play of Dayton. DiJuan Harris had a great game against Dayton a year ago. Harris was able to penetrate into the middle and he opened up opportunities for teammates and got to the FT line himself. Dayton may have developed a strategy against that, but what they can't account for is Derrio Green who has the same abilities and is an 80% FT shooter. Green is the other guard that has been averaging 20.2 ppg over his last 5 games. He had 31 against Georgia Tech earlier in the year and he can score from anywhere on the court including getting to the basket.
Dayton has been solid at home outscoring opponents by 13.3ppg, but what they do well I believe Charlotte can contend and that's rebounding the ball. Charlotte has a +1 rebound margin ont he road and their front court could throw some fits despite being undersized by Dayton's Center Kurt Huelsman. Huelsman is not the real problem as he only rebounds 3.5 per game and Center Spears from Charlotte although 4 inches shorter is the same weight and will play more aggressively. I believe this could cause some issues on defense for Dayton and Charlotte has been playing solid defense in conference play to suggest that it would continue against Dayton. For whatever reason Charlotte has always played Dayton well as they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. I expect them to play in a close game that will resemble a conference playoff game for sure. The crowd will be loud but Charlotte has experience in these situations already this year playing on the road against some of the bigger schools in the country including @ Louisville which averages fans of 20k where they won outright and @ Duke and other big time conference opponents including @ Xavier and @ Richmond.
