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So it’s the Reds with 1 game in the loss column up on the Cardinals.  They’ll throw their ace in Chris Carpenter out on the mound against the rookie Mike Leake.  This is arguably Leake’s biggest game as a Red as they try to get some room in the NL Central.  For years the Reds have had hopes in the NL Central and many are believing this is the year because of their offense.  However, I still think they need to get through the Cardinals and it won’t be easy and I’ll tell you why.
 
At first glance I saw the Cardinals struggling bullpen and the Reds ability to get clutch hitting.  I think that’s the only way they win this game when looking at the pitching match up.  You don’t want to back a team that needs to come from behind.  Cardinals starter Carpenter is 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. the Reds with just 7 ER total.  IN three starts this year he’s got 21 IP 11 hits and 3 ER for an ERA 1.28 and a WHIP 0.67.  Leake had been consistent early, but now he has been inconsistent.  He had 6 IP 2 ER vs. the Cardinals earlier this year, but in his last 9 starts he’s been showing his age with a 6.11 ERA giving up 36 ER over 53 IP.
 
This is bad news because Carpenter has been especially dominant against the Reds and is pitching in a must win type of game so that the Cards can move up in the division.  He is 9-0 in night starts this year with a 2.18 ERA while his team is 14-2 in those 16 night starts.  Cardinals are 43-11 in Carpenter’s last 54 during game 1 of a series.  Bottom line with the value at -133 I can’t help but back a veteran like Carpenter over a rookie who has been struggling.  The line would normally be -180 to -200, but because of Leake’s early success and the Reds success Vegas knows they’ll have plenty backing the Reds today, BUT I won’t be one of them.

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