This is a huge situational play as North Texas is beat up. Just how beat up? Let's start up front where they are on their third string center and 4th string QB. QB Chase Baine who has never thrown a pass in a college game will start. Along with those issues they have lost a total of 12 starters which has led to turnovers and sloppy play including a record 15 penalties last week. One bright spot has been Lance Dunbar who ran for 141 yards, but he's doing it against poor run defenses an average 81st rush defense is what they have faced. Now Arkansas State struggles with stopping the run, but when you know you can load up the box and you have the experience of facing Auburn, Troy, and Louisville's running attacks 8th, 44th, and 30th ranked you should be able to hold your own. Standing in Dunbar's way will be pre-season Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year Bryan Hall at DT and MLB Javon McKinnon coming off 16 tackles from a week ago.
On the other side Arkansas State has put up at least 24 points in all five of their games and that's against some pretty good competition as they have faced an average 61st defense and have the #33rd ranked total offense. North Texas will have issues and when you are ranked 81st in scoring defense and 108th in scoring offense you probably aren't winning many games. North Texas has to keep this game low, but I don't think they'll be able to as QB Ryan Aplin threw for a career high three TD's vs. Louisville ranked 37th in pass defense and seems to get better each week. Arkansas St is balanced too as RB Sirgregory Thornton is averaging 7 yards per carry and was considered on of the top backs out of Tennessee out of high school. Look out for WR Dwayne Frampton ranked top 10 in Sun Belt in all purpose yards. Oh Arkansas State has beaten North Texas 5 straight times.
