A rough day yesterday as the Red Sox could not take advantage of early opportunities but I like our chances early on Thursday to correct the loss from yesterday with the Jays who we get some good value on. We mentioned in previous picks how the Aâs just are not a good road team and the Jays are one of the better home teams. Iâm more concentrated in this match up on Trevor Cahill and his history shows he has trouble traveling east. More times than not he has bad starts vs. the likes of Chicago (AL +NL), Detroit, Boston, New York, and even Toronto where in 3 career starts he posts a 8.04 ERA. Now Jays likely still without Bautista but that hasnât held them back and I donât think it will today. Cahill makes the start at 12:37 local time but for the Aâs this is an early start it will feel more like 9:37 and I think they will have a hard time this early in the season getting up for this game. Also expect the Cy Young candidate Cahill to not put up the same numbers as last year he did have a little luck last year with just a .238 average on balls in play and he struck out less than 6k per 9. Law of averages says he wonât be putting up ERAâs south of 3.0 and he wasnât the same pitcher on the road posting a 3.86 ERA 1.68 higher than his home ERA where he plays in a huge park that helps pitchers. Cahill struggled in his first start this year giving up 4 walks and 4 hits in 105 pitches over 4.2 innings. He wasnât helped by the errors, and again heâll have his work cut out for him on turf where he has never been a good pitcher. On the Blue Jays mound is Ricky Romero who is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA vs. Oakland in his career. Romero pitched better at home, during the day, and in April last year posting ERAâs 3.27, 3.14, and 2.25. Over the last three years heâs been an ace in April posting a 2.05 ERA. His day starts too have been solid with a 3.28 ERA. Aâs are now just 6-18 in their last 24 with the Jays including 1-7 in Toronto while the Blue Jays continue to dominate right handed pitching they are 40-19 in their last 59 home games vs. righties and they have a .312 average and are averaging 7.82 runs per 9 innings vs. righties so far this year. Romero can go 6 innings in this one to get the win as the bullpen has been great this year posting a 1.00 ERA.
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Mets +187 (2.5* Dog of the Day)
Halladay was the ace last year on the Phillies and he went 4-0 with an ERA in the low 2âs vs. the Mets in 4 starts, but he didnât have to deal with a healthy Beltran or Reyes. The Mets have surprisingly been active with the bats. Reyes is the key to the Mets success and heâs 8-19 vs. Halladay in his career. This game promises to be a low scoring game with Niese on the other side. Niese is quickly becoming more of the ace of this team than Mike Pelfrey after getting roughed up. Niese has a 2.14 ERA in 3 starts vs. the Phillies and the Phils have just a .192 average in 52 at bats including Howard who is 1-6. Bottom line without Werth or Utley this Phillies team is not the same offensively. They put up 10 runs yesterday but a day game after a night game canât surely be the same. Beltran and Those are a combined 18-47 vs. Halladay good for a .383 average that gives the Mets 3 hitters with a lot of success vs. the Halladay. With Niese on the mound and this much value I have a hard time not pulling the trigger.
