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Nationals -130 (5.5* MLB POD)
Love the Nationals as the Pirates are 10-41 in their last 51 road games vs. a winning home team.  Their recent slide is due to their inability to get hits with runners in scoring position 2-12 yesterday in their loss.  Over the last 10 games they are hitting just .221 with 3.02 runs per 9 vs. RHP and that will continue to be a problem vs. Jordan Zimmerman who is only expected to get better with a trending ERA lower than his actual 4.13 ERA as his xFIP is 3.78.  I like Zimm’s stuff and the Nationals are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a losing road team and 25-10 in their last 35 home meetings with the Pirates.  Nationals are learning how to pitch at home posting a 2.40 ERA in their 20 home starts this year.  Charlie Morton comes into this game pitching extremely well, but it’s hard to say that’s going to continue.  There are several red flags including left hand hitters who are hitting .404 off him.  All of a sudden he leads the league in ground ball % with 77.4? and his BABIP is somewhat lucky which goes along with those numbers.  His actual ERA is -0.95 pts from his xFIP which is a measure of his trending ERA compared with his actual stuff.  Pirates are just 4-18 in his last 22 road starts and he hasn’t pitched nearly as well on the road this year posting a 4.26 ERA.  He has a 6.75 ERA during 1 day start this year and a 11.25 ERA during 4 day starts in 2010.  I’ll say this he’s definitely on the right track with his sinker but he’s getting way too lucky at this point and Zimmerman has better stuff.  Nationals also in limited at bats have a .474 average and 1.158 OPS vs. Morton.  I expect Washington to continue their day game success at 9-6 with a 3.40 ERA.
 

Where to find Freddy?