Tom Gorzelanny makes the start for the RED HOT Nationals and I'm afraid that's not a good thing. It's his second start since coming off the DL and the first one was no good either as he went just 4.2 IP giving up 10 hits and 4 ER vs. the Orioles. Now he makes another start on the road and during the day against the White Sox who are 38-14 in their last 52 inter league games. Gorzelanny has a 5.01 ERA in day starts from 08-2010 over 134 innings pitched while John Danks over 2008-2010 has a 2.76 ERA over 36 starts. It's clear Danks has learned to prepare for day games and he's got a 3.09 ERA during his June starts over the last 3 years which is his next best month after April. He's got a 1.23 ERA over 3 starts this month and he faces a Nationals team although hot right now that is among the worst in OPS vs. LHP at just .656 and they are 26th with a .665 OPS during day games where they average just 3.51 runs per game while the White Sox are scoring 4.71 runs per game during day games and are 7th with a .762 OPS during day games. I hate to fade the Nationals in consecutive nights, but it's really the best play on the card.
I was going to have a play on Jurrjens again, but the line keeps going the way opening at -145 and now -130 and another move to -128. I think the oddsmakers are expecting a closely played game and to me that means no runs. Dustin Moseley has been great and both bullpens are among the best in the majors. In fact Atlanta is number 1 and San Diego is #2 in bullpen ERA. San Diego is .206 with just 2.78 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home as it's very difficult to score runs in this ball park. San Diego is 29th with a .629 OPS vs. RHP and they have just 31 HR. Atlanta hits righties much better than lefties which is why I'm a little surprise the line kept going the other way. Once again I expect a low scoring game and that's why I think you see this line moving as the oddsmakers expect that too.
