There are many red flags regarding this Ole Miss team and I just think Auburn is improving with each week. They are coming off a tough loss, but being back at home should help that, and Ole Miss is off a big win at home in dominating fashion and this line is definitely a bit inflated because of that along with the ârevenge factorâ that everyone is talking about after Ole Miss lost last year 35-31 in dramatic fashion to Auburn.
I feel like I am backing the more balanced offense here. Ole Miss is a completely different team on the road running the ball with 2.26 yards per carry, and they have struggled against some bad overall defenses like Memphis. Auburn is getting better on defense and held Miss State, a better rushing offense to 2yards less per carry than their season average. Auburn is also getting Carl Lawson back at DE for this game so the pass defense will definitely benefit as well.
I mentioned red flags, and itâs surrounding the QB play Chad Kelly. First of all heâs got a QB rating of 129 in SEC play, and 185 outside. To put it into perspective Auburnâs QB have a 125 QB rating in SEC play and have had 3 of their 4 games on the road. Auburn also suffered last week from a ton of drops otherwise they really could have dominated Arkansas. 7 drop passes does not help a QB, and it typically is something that is easily corrected. The other red flag is the fact that Ole Miss offense is converting just 31% of third downs on the road, and 33% in conference play. Compare that with Auburn who is converting 46% at home and 44% in conference play, but since they made the QB switch they are now converting 54% of the time, because they are a pass and run threat and Ole Miss defense on the road has not been nearly as good allowing 55% in 3 road games. This has trickled over to the red zone where they are only converting 41% of their trips into TDâs in SEC play, and they are allowing 93% in conference play. Thatâs a huge stat considering Auburn does not give up big plays.
I have backed this Auburn a lot this year and have been wrong a lot, but I have watched nearly all of their games and the value right now is really high, because they havenât been winning games, but I have noticed them playing a lot better. Ole Miss is a team that also turns the ball over quite a bit 19 on the season and Auburn has just 1 turnover in their last 4 games overall and they are only penalized 4 times per game. They also enjoy a significant edge in special teams ranking 7th in special teams efficiency while Ole Miss comes in at 74th.
