Sox again. Despite their troubles vs. the White Sox we cashed in last night on our max play and we plan for the same result here today as when you cut to the core of this match up the true advantages are on the side of the men from Boston. Let's first start by saying the Red Sox have dominated day games this year they are 24-9 with a 3.71 ERA and have scored 6.55 runs per day game. They have the #1 OPS with an incredible .875 during day starts. Compared with the Sox who are scoring 4.18 runs per day game and have a 3.79 ERA and are 21-19. Just not quite even with what the Red Sox are doing.
Next both teams are facing LHP today as Boston is #3 with a .816 OPS very close behind the Reds and Yankees while the White Sox have really struggled with a .668 OPS ranked 25th vs. LHP. Now the pitching match up looks like it's in favor of the Mark Buehrle and the White Sox but I beg to differ. Buehrle has been great at home with a 2.25 ERA over 10 starts, but a closer look and we realize how lucky he's been. First of all he's faced some very bad teams that can't hit lefties like the Red Sox including the A's twice, Twins, and Dodgers all ranked over 20th in OPS vs. LHP. His two starts vs. the Tigers who are ranked 7th are the only top 10 team he's faced at home and he gave up 10 hits in each start very lucky not to give up more runs than he did. He faced the Angels and Orioles both ranked 14th and 16th respectfully and again he gave up 12 base runners in each game and was able to escape giving his team a chance to win. Very lucky in my opinion. Red Sox are the cream of the crop and they have hit Buehlre very hard over their career as they have a combined 236 at bats with a .339 average and .856 OPS. McDonald, Ellsbury, Ortiz, Pedroia, Crawford all int he line up today are 46-115 batting .400 vs. him and Varitek is 10-31 with a lot of success vs. Buehrle. Add in Adrian Gonzalez .301 vs. LHP and Youkilis who is hitting .331 vs. LHP and this just spells trouble for Buehrle as the Red Sox are hitting .341 scoring 12.27 runs per 9 over the last 10 games vs. LHP. They are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. LH starters.
Now to Boston's starter. I won't get into as deep, but Andrew Miller is only 26 coming off an 80 pitch performance so he's fresh to go in this one. He was a highly touted prospect and I think he still can be a huge factor for the Red Sox this season. You look at his ERA and you would stay away from this match up, but he's been bad in two starts vs. Rays and Royals who are 8th and 13th in OPS vs. LHP. The Sox are 25th so he finally gets a match up where he can cruise and dominate. His other 5 starts with the Sox this year he's 5-0 with a 2.86 ERA so he can pitch effectively especially vs. White Sox who are hitting .225 with just 2.23 runs per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games. Boston's bullpen will be needed in this one and they are well rested and have a 2.59 ERA over their last 10 games.
Braves here at home are 56-25 in their last 81 home vs. RH starters. Their line up is still without McCann and Chipper but the ky players Freeman, Prado, Heyward, and Uggla all have hit right handed pitching much better than lefties. Between Prado, Heyward, and Uggly 35 of their 41 home runs have come vs. RHP just to put that in perspective. Freeman is hitting .322 vs. RHP. Nolasco has struggled vs. the Braves and has a 5.21 ERA during day starts this year. Hanson has a 3.02 ERA at home and in his last 3 vs. the Marlins 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. In his 8 starts vs. the Marlins he has a 2.32 ERA. Florida has 109 AB with a .202 average and .654 OPS. They are 5-23 in their last 28 vs. a winning team. Both pitchers are on 4 days rest. Nolasco is 2-9 in his last 11 on 4 days rest while Hanson is 10-1.
