Well the Yankees really put themselves in a great spot. I put money down before Game #3 on the Tigers to win the series and I felt good with AJ on the mound yesterday, but then the Curtis Granderson catch changed the entire out come of this series. Yankees have CC available in the bullpen and a fresh Mariano to get 6 outs and I don't think there is a way for the Yankees to lose this game with Ivan Nova on the mound.
Nova has been great 8-2 at home and 14-4 with a 3.61 ERA during night starts. He does not seem phased by this kind of spot light and reminds me a lot of Orlando Hernandez. Fister is on the other side and very quietly has been great since coming over from Seattle, but there is a catch. He's struggled vs. the Yankees, Teixera is 3-9 Jeter 4-10, Cano 2-6, Granderson 1-3 with a HR and even Alex Rodriguez showed signs last game of turning it around. collectively the Yankees have 70 AB much more experience than the Tigers have vs. Nova with just 24 AB. Gardner 5-13 and Cano has 8 RBI we mentioned Jeter's success in the series as well. While the Tigers seem to be falling as Austin Jackson is 1-10 in the lead off Avila is 0-12 and Betemit is 0-8 and Miguel Cabrera 0-5 in the last 2 games. A closer look at Fister and of his 17 road starts he's really only had 4 starts against quality opponents. Pitching in the West and the Central really benefits a pitcher while Nova has had a much more challenging road to get to where he is. IN those 4 starts on the road at Boston, Detroit, Toronto and New York he has struggled with the exception of an early start in Boston. He did not pitch well in game #1 in relief allowing 9 base runners in 4.2 IP and giving up 6 ER.
At home the Yankees are scoring 1.58 more runs per 9 vs. RHP than the Tigers are vs. RHP and their bullpen is 1 run better at home than the Tigers on the road. Yankees have the strength in the bullpen and the Tigers are 10-21 in their last 31 following an off day. Yankees are also 38-16 in their last 54 vs. the Tigers at home.
