This game I lean towards Pittsburgh and being the home team as an under dog coming off two losses, but Iâll play the under in this one as the total is inflated as any total Iâve ever seen. Two reasons for a high total here USF is averaging 45.5 ppg, but they put up those gaudy numbers vs. Ball St, Fl A&M and UTEP. While Pitt is supposed to take on their new head coach from Tulsa who runs a high octane offense, but he has even admitted they have no run it. So throw that all out the window and look at the common opponent of Notre Dame. Pitt had the advantage facing them at home while USF had to go on the road in game 1 of the season and escaped with a victory despite getting doubled in yardage and +5 in TO margin. Pitt was also +2 in TO margin. The two things I take away are this, both USF and Pitt take care of the ball, and their offenses are not elite despite what the numbers tell you about USF. South Florida put up just 254 yards while Pitt put up 268. Notre Dame dominated time of possession by over 17 minutes vs. USF, while Pitt was +17 over Notre Dame. That means you can expect Pitt to run the ball and play keep away from an offense that is very capable of scoring and scoring fast.
USF put up just 285 yards a year ago to Pitt and itâs the same old story this team starts strong in non âconference and then the Big East season starts. Pit averages 2.75 sacks per game and is very capable of keeping BJ Daniels between the hashes. They have speed on the edges led by Brandon Lindsey and the toughness in the middle to stop up the middle runs. Looking at the numbers and USF offense actually runs 60% of the time which means a shortened game. Even their offense is not built to throw the ball down field. Their big plays have come by broken tackles or blown coverage and Pitt is very sound on defense and wonât make those type of mistakes in the Big East opener. Pittâs defense has not given up a point in the first quarter this game so expect a low score at the half on our way to going under the total.
We spoke about USFâs offense vs. Pittâs defense now letâs talk Pittâs offense led by Ray Graham. Heâs going to touch the ball 30 times running/receiving. Tino Sunseri lacks the skill to run coach Grahamâs Tulsa offense. Sunseri will get sacked in this game ending chances to score points. TDâs will turn into Field Goals regularly for these two teams because both defenses are strong at getting to the QB. Sunseri sacked 6 times last game and USF defense has 12 already on the season and they also can stop the run 82 yards per game. Expect a very conservative game plan in the Big East opener on both sides. These coaches wonât be dragged into the media hype of saving the Big East in a national spot light game.
