I remember this story isn't it so similar. A team with a solid defense loses at home and then goes on the road as a double digit favorite against a one dimensional offense? That was Texas losing to Oklahoma on their way to play Nebraska as a +10 dog. The result was a winner for us and an outright Texas victory 20-13, then Texas folded.
I think Ohio State can have a similar result on Saturday night. First thing first Nebraska's offense is absolutely one dimensional and Ohio State has seen very similar type of approaches from Michigan and at least Denard Robinson is a threat to throw the ball. Taylor Martinez is absolutely not a threat throwing 5 interceptions and barely completing 50% of his passes. The public is pounding Nebraska after their terrible offensive performance vs. Michigan STate, but Mich State is quietly leading the nation in total defense and Ohio State now looks to start a new QB which could have a big impact on this game. It's also not like Nebraska's defense is the same they can be beat in the secondary with 3 new starters and that should open things up a bit for the running game of Ohio State, but it will be the defense that carries this team as they are 23rd vs. the run 13th in total offense and 11th in points allowed.
I don't see what Nebraska has done to warrant being a double digit favorite as they lost at Wisconsin 17-48. I know Ohio State's offense has been awful, but they get an NFL caliber tackle back this week in Mike Adams and that should help. Despite all the issues Ohio State is still +4 turnover margin and they forced a very good experienced QB in Kirk Cousins into 3 turnovers.
Ohio State has allowed just 10 possessions in the red zone this year that will mean that Nebraska gets there only twice in this game yet they are double digit favorites? I don't see it in a game they will be most likely negative in turnover margin and the clock should be ticking with both teams running the ball a lot. Ohio Sate is 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a winning team, 20-7-1 ATS following a SU loss, 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 conference games. Nebraska got a nice welcome to the Big Ten last week vs. Wisconsin. Nebraska is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 as a favorite 10.5+ and is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 as a home favorite of 10.5+ they don't want to play aggressively and score a ton of points when they get up they sit on that clock and that provides us nice value for a cover.
