Tigers are good and should have won that game if Miguel Cabrera was not so fat. I never have liked the idea of putting a closer in a non closer role. The game is mental and Valverde could not handle that situation. Looking at his numbers during the season he has an ERA over 5 when he's in a non closer role. He got through the 1st inning but putting him out for the 2nd was a mistake and cost the Tigers the game. Fortunately this is a resillient bunch and Jim Leyland is Mr. Cool and they are 35-16 in their last 51 following a loss and nowt hey have their ace on the mound who has a 1.78 ERA and a 8-1 record during day starts. IN fact Verlander has never been comfortable this post season he's had two rain outs which impacted his one start and I think finnally getting into a regular rhythm and rest will prove to be a huge factor today.
CJ Wilson's road records indicate he's an elite pitcher on the road with a 2.31 ERA. A closer look and he has 6 road starts that's 33% of his road starts vs. the Mariners (ranked 30th in OPS vs. LHP) and the A's (ranked 28th). Taking his numbers against the top 10 teams he's just a slightly above average pitcher on the road. Actually the Rangers are just 6-13 in their last 19 road games vs. a winning team with Wilson on the mound. Tigers facing another lefty back to back is an advantage when you can see the same angles. They are 51-25 in their last 76 home games vs. a LH starter.
I look for the Brewers to even this series up. Randy Wolf has struggled of late but he's had a lot of success vs. the CArdinals and their hitters. IN his last two starts at Busch Stadium he's been dominant 16 IP 9 hits and 2 ER in 2011. In 2010 he had similar starts at Busch Stadium to end the year going 14.2 IP giving up 7 hits and 2 ER. Brewers are 37-15 in their last 52 vs. a RH starter and Kyle Lohse just does not scare me. What I'm more confident in is this.. Holliday, Furcal, and Berkman are a combined 23-120 or a .192 average that's 3 of the Cardinals 1st 5 in the line up. Nobody, including Pujols has dominant numbers vs. Wolf and I think that will allow Wolf to pick and choose who he pitches to. Cardinals just do not hit lefties at home as well as right handed pitching. They are scoring more than a full run less per 9 vs. LHP at home just 3.59 with a .251 average and are 0-6 in their last 6 home games vs. a LH starter.
