Western Kentucky has been on fire, and I've been waiting for an opportunity to fade them. The opportunity is when they face a balanced offense, and today they not only will face a balanced offense, but a balanced defense one that's ranked 30th in the nation in stopping the run which is the strength of Western Kentucky with RB Bobby Rainey among one of the best RB's in the country. Florida International has held Rainey under 100 yards in the last two years.
Western Kentucky does not have the defense to stop Florida International's balanced attack. For one UL Monroe scored 28 pts on them just last week racking up 456 yards in a 31-28 loss to Western Kentucky. They also allowed 480 yards to MIddle Tennessee which was the last balanced offense they faced. Still MTSU has zero defense ranked 105th in the nation so a 36-33 win for Western Kentucky was no surprise, but Florida International has the 39th ranked total defense. They allow just 3.51 yards per carry, 3.67 on the road and as I mentioned they've had success containing Rainey before and when you don't have to worry about the passing game from Western Kentucky you can get real agressive vs. the run. On the flip side Western Kentucky allows 5.50 yards per carry at home on defense and FIU can run the ball as well as pass. Actually they have the best player on their side of the ball with TY Hilton who will be used in the running and receiving game. He'll have Wesley Carrol throwing to him who has 1740 yards, 9 TD 3 interceptions and 62% completion rate. I like Carrol vs. the 102nd ranked pass defense.
Western Kentucky wins when they get sacks 12 in their 4 wins, but FLINT has allowed only 11 sacks all year. Wky is also -6 in turnover margin at home and as we mentioned Florida just does not turn the ball over and I don't think that will change.
The last few advantages are extra preparation as Florida has 4 extra days to prepare for this game that's a key conference game. With no look ahead game on the horizon you bet they were concentrated on Western Kentucky and stopping the run and their leading receiver TE Jack Doyle who was shut down vs. ULMON which has one of the nation's worst defenses. To make matters worst Western Kentucky can't make field goal's they are just 3-12 this season. Look for Florida International to make some statements in the red zone and hold the momentum throughout the game.
Rutgers held an advantage at half time vs. the Big East's best team in WEst Virginia 31-21 before they did not score a point in the 2nd half and finished the game -3 in turnovers. That's something they don't do often as they have 26 forced turnovers on the year and USF will give away their share of turnovers. Rutgers defense is just as good as Pitt and Uconn and USF came Northeast and could not do much vs. those two teams. Rutgers is aggressive they get sacks and they force turnovers. This is the exact match up USF did not want following their bye, they had a similar match up last year following extra preparation and were home as 10.5 point favorites to Rutgers. They did win, but by 1 point. Now they are on the road where they just can't win. The early season schedule has led to them being over hyped while Rutgers faced some challenges early for the first time in a few years that are continuing to pay off.
Look for Rutgers to bounce back here they have home field, the more aggressive and better defense, and quietly have better weapons. I think USF plays man to man and comes up to blitz and that will be a mistake with WR Harrisson catching deep balls, and Mohammed Sanu another electrifying WR. USF can't stay on the field converting just 27.5% of 3rd downs ont he road, and Rutgers is holding opponents to 28% at home 25% in conference play. USF additionally can't get out of it's own way with 7.7 penalties per game. USF is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 as a road favorite and if you ask me shouldn't be road favorites if they have 2 weeks off especially vs. a capable team like Rutgers.
