Vilma doubtful is a huge loss if he can't play or be 100% and I think that will mean a big day again for Turner running the ball. Falcons made their off season moves for this very type of game. Win the division and compete with the Packers and be able to score points. That means beating the Saints and now that Julio Jones is healthy we saw what type of player he is and can be. The Saints simply do not have the defense to stop the Falcons and we saw the troubles Drew Brees and the offensive line had in St. Louis on the road.
John Abraham and Ray Edwards should be able to get to Brees or at least force him to get the ball out fast and that usually means no big plays. I think this game will go back and forth a bit, but I trust the home team and the Falcons defense to just make more plays. The Saints are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 following a straight up win and the Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS win. The Falcons finally started playing the game they are capable of and that will continue today.
We backed this team outright a week ago against the Chiefs on the road and the Dolphins came up with a 31-3 win and that's because Matt Moore was effective 17-23 with 244 yards 3TD 0 INT and the running game continued to click and now REggie Bush has had 260 yards on 35 touches in the last 2 games. That continues against the REdskins who are clearly offensively challenged. John Beck has an inability to see down the field and there are just too many check downs to the running back and that's the reason they have 11 points in the last 2 games. Redskins are better off with Rex Grossman. I expect at some point for Grossman to be the guy again, but for now it's Beck and he's just not that good.
Beck is getting sacked once every 9 drop backs where Grossman was once every 19. Dolphins can get to the QB with Cameron Wake they had 5 sacks in their last game and it will likely be a key here as they force Beck to make mistakes. Redskins are just 7-21-3 in their last 31 games vs. a losing team and 5-16-6 in their last 27 after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
