Mich St +10 3.3*
This is too many points in my opinion as there has not been a single matchup since 2004 that was decided by more than 10 points. Although this line seems a little whacky to me, but Iâll still go with Michigan State which has gotten better and more balanced since the last meeting with Wisconsin which they won on a hail mary. Wisconsin wants revenge sure who wouldnât, but that doesnât give them a 10 point advantage in my opinion. If you ask me Michigan State has more motivation and revenge in this one. They beat Wisconsin last year, and had a three way tie for the Big Ten, but lost out to the Rose Bowl because they were lower in the BCS rankings. Itâs clear the Rose Bowl is the main goal of this team and everyone knows it. I love the veteran leadership on this team and you hear it from DT Jerel Worthy in terms of where they put their off season goals and it was on the Rose Bowl. Well a win here and nobody can steal the Rose Bowl from them.
Enough about the emotional motivation itâs important, but letâs get to the stats that makes this a lean by my formulas. Michigan State can stop the run and they can beat you passing and throwing. They were 8-16 on third down in the first match up and their run defense actually struggled allowing Wisconsin to average over 5 yards per carry. Well what will help is their running game has gotten better 4.36 yards per carry. They can hang on to the ball longer and their defense will be fresher for each play. I look for them to live up to their 11th run defense ranking. Theyâre allowing just 2.72 yards per carry on the road. Theyâll have to stop the #1 rushing offense this time and they canât expect Russell Wilson to throw two interceptions again.
Fresno State +8 (4.4* play)
Despite having nothing to play for I actually like this play a lot. Fresno did not have an easy schedule early on, and they have been in every game with the exception of Boise State. San Diego State does not blow out balanced offensive teams because their defense just is not there. Fresno should be able to keep this within a score all night long. Ryan Lindley has not looked great 13-29 2 TD and an interception vs. UNLV and San Diego State actually had just a 17-14 lead in the 4th quarter. Fresnoâs team rankings are a lot like Wyomingâs and they should be able to take advantage on the ground as San Diego State is allowing 4.38 ypc and Robbie Rouse is an NFL talent that should be able to balance the offense for Fresno along with QB Derek Carr who has 14 TD 3 interceptions in his last 6 games and has thrown for 248 yards at least in every game.
San Diego State lost to Wyoming and when they face balanced offenses they tend to give up points. I point Wyoming out because offensively and defensively Fresno and Wyoming are both very similar. I like Fresnos ability to play better on the road. They convert more third downs on the road and San diego State defense is allowing 48% conversions at home, Wyoming was 10-19. Red Zone defense for San Diego State is allowing 74% TDâs on the year and 70% at home while Fresnoâs defense just 58% in their last 4 games and 65% on the year. I think Fresno can trade a TD for a field goal a few times. Fresno is 5-1 ATS in their last as a dog 3.5 to 10 points. Watch out for their PR Devon Wylie who is averaging 16.04 yards per return.
