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Falcons/Jaguars Under 42.5 (2.2* total); Falcons -5.5/U48.5 (4.4* POD Teaser)
This game is very interesting as the Jaguars come off a season high in points and the Falcons erased a 23-7 deficit and scored 24 unanswered points as we ended up losing our Panthers bet in that game.  I like the under tonight.  The Jaguars and the Falcons offenses are nothing special.  You may think the Falcons are in the top 10 of prolific offenses but they are simply not on a statistical basis.  I do think they created some momentum last week but they are far too inconsistent even at home.  Their season high is 31 points and I expect them to be between 20 and 27 points with Jaxonville between 10-14 points max.  The fact is both teams should be running the ball tonight and one team will have success.
 
Atlanta is one of the best at stopping the run they are 7th allowing 3.9 ypc while Jacksonville is not far behind allowing 4.1 ypc.  Jags give up a lot of yards, but that’s because their pass defense has been solid only allowing 191 yards per game.  Falcons like to play with their new weapons but it’s playoff time and I expect them to do a lot of running with Michael Turner here tonight and this should slow the game down significantly considering the Jaguars also like to do the same with MJD who had 4 rushing TD’s last week.  No worries Jaguars are 31st in the league in RZ appearances per game at 2.1.  They created 7 turnovers a week ago against the Bucs that won’t happen here tonight.  If they do try to pass they could have some success as Atlanta has not been forcing turnovers but that’s good for our under in my opinion.  Falcons have faced 4 rookie QB’s in a row and only have 2 interceptions.  So although Gabbert is having a bad year completing just 50% of his throws I believe he won’t make many mistakes giving the ball to the Falcons in good field position.  With that said there is a reason why Jacksonville leads the league in 3rd down attempts per game with over 15.  Also good for our under because Atlanta is in the middle of the pack allowing 42% converted.  We want to see Jacksonville convert a few here to keep that clock ticking and they will.
 
Atlanta’s offense goes up against the Jaguars and we already mentioned their statistics, well Jags are 12th in allowing just 36% 3rd down conversions.  Other than giving up 38 to San Diego their defense has been holding most of their opponents under 20 points and they’ve played 2 quality opponents on the road of late in the Steelers (17pts) and Texans (24 pts).  They are allowing just 2.4 RZ attempts per game so expect Atlanta to get there maybe 3 times and settle for 17 points.  Jags are allowing 58% into TD’s so we’ll give the Falcons 2 of 3.  You can say Atlanta gets there 4 times okay so that’s 24 points max they’ll get tonight and I don’t see Jacksonville getting to 20 which is what they’d need to push the total over especially since Atlanta’s defensive strength is stopping the run and they are 11th allowing just 2.8 RZ attempts per game.  Wouldn’t be surprised if Jacksonville scores 6-10 points, because Atlanta is 7th with 40.54% TD allowed in RZ, but this spread is just too tough to call in my opinion the total is a better bet and when you tease it these numbers are just on very good numbers.  Expect more FG’s than TD’s tonight.

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