Arizona State is a time that really lost a lot down the stretch after starting 6-2 and being nationally ranked. Their defense turned south, but they continued to score points and that's why I like them still tonight. On the shoulders of Brock Osweiler I think he'll be able to score enough points to cover this spread. Why would Arizona State be pumped for this game? Despite not going to a BCS or even in their conference championship this team is playing a top 10 team so defeating them would send the seniors out on a high note and this is a senior laden team. Dennis Erickson stepped down or fired or whatever will coach his last game. I believe preparation will be at a premium. Not many people know their last game or their last hoorah but Erickson in this situation does. He's got an impressive resume from his Miami days and his days in the NFL and I believe he'll have some special things for Boise tonight that will allow them to cover the spread.
On the flip side Boise had just 14 sacks in their last 11 games and they allowed 10 TD passes in a 3 game span vs. UNLV, TCU, and SD State. Osweiler runs the 10th ranked passing offense and should cause fits for Boise defense. Boise of course is an offensive machine behind Kellen Moore's 41 TD passes he has not lost a beat all year long despite losing his top two WR to the NFL Draft. AZ has the talent up front to get into the backfield and stop the run. Boise only ran the ball 4.54 ypc and just 4.22 in their last 5. That's productive but not enough to dominate a game and cover this spread. Arizona State at one time was the #1 team in the league in sacks and forced turnovers and they did finish with 29. I think the outstanding LB Vantaze Burfict who quit on his team in the last game will be highly motivated and even motivational to his teammates. I do expect to see some of that momentum on Arizona State's side throughout this time. Will it be enough to win? I doubt it, but if they can get back to where they were earlier in the year on 3rd down defense holding Oregon 3 for 11 and holding various other opponents under 30% they can win this game. On the year they have held opponents to 34% conversions and even their red zone defensive TD% allowed is lower than Boise 53% to Boise's 64%.
Secret weapon would have to be kick returner Jamal Miles. He's got returns of 98 and 95 yards and a punt return for a TD of 78 yards look for this to be an advantage in this game. Arizona State is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 as a dog 10.5+ while Boise just 0-6ATS in their last 6 as favorites 10.5+.
