Of the SEC teams in bowl season Georgia probably had the easiest schedule as they did not face Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas in the regular season and then they were exposed by LSU in the SEC Championship game losing 42-10. Michigan State also had a heartbreaking loss in the Big Ten Championship and won't be going to the Rose Bowl yet again. This is a more veteran team than Georgia and although they are not happy about losing that game they do remember coming out in last year's Capital One Bowl and getting destroyed by Alabama 49-7. This team is better and I think they have what it takes to win today.
Let's take a look at both QB's because both are pretty good and can play at the next level starting with Kirk Cousins who is the more accurate of the two 65% opposed to 58.8%. Murray has 33 TD's to Cousins 24, but Cousins just 7 interceptions to Murray's 12. Both defenses these two go up against are stout in pass defense, but in my opinion Georgia is a bit over rated having faced just two QB's the entire season in Kellen Moore and Tenn's Tyler Bray both having good games. Georgia is just not used to facing accurate passing QB's and that's what Cousins is with Keshawn Marin and BJ Cunningham on the outside. Both defenses have shown an ability to get to the QB, but Murray has been sacked 13 more times than Cousins. There are some pretty good pass rushes in the Big Ten including Michigan State who was the #1 sack % defense in the nation and had 41 sacks. Georgia got it done often with interceptions and Cousins just doesn't make too many poor decisions even under pressure. Georgia's offensive line will have some real issues in this game and I give the edge to Mich State.
Run offense and defense is probably a push, Statistically Michigan State is better allowing 2.9 ypc while Georgia allowed 3.5 and again got even more exposed in the SEC Championship game allowing well over 5 yards per carry. Michigan State on the other hand only allowed 1 team to rush over 4 yards per carry all season and that's pretty consistent. Michigan State's running game also came alive the last 3 games because of Le'Vion Bell who had averaged 5.45 ypc all year and got 7.56, 5.38, and 5.89 over his last 3 games.
Finally special teams. We saw how that hurt Georgia in the SEC Championship game and Michigan State has a punt return threat in Keshawn Martin who is explosive averaging nearly 12 yards per return and Nick Hill over 26 yards per kick return. Georgia's kicking game too struggles 7-14 in 40+ yard field goals. I think Georgia overall is a bit over rated and a bit to young to come up with a win after a heartbreaking loss vs. LSU.
