I really like the under, I think this is a lot of points with each team facing the best defense they will face all year long. I really think Ohio Stateâs defense steps up in games like this, and this trend proves it as they are under 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a winning team. When we get down to the match up I think we see a 21-17, or lower type of final. This game still has a lot of meaning, and both head coaches will be well prepared to play with the strengths of their teams which is running the ball and playing defense. I also love the fact that each coach will have his players believing that this game is to get into the Big Ten Championship. If Penn State loses later that day it certainly will be, but there will be no scoreboard watching until after the game resulting in what I feel will be a great game.
I actually originally leaned towards Ohio State here, but the numbers make me think Michigan will win although Iâm not playing the side because of these reasons I do have a strong feeling on the under. These are two complete defenses taking the field both ranked top 5 in yards per play allowed. They can each stop the run ranking in the top 10, and Ohio State has allowed 2.8 on the road while Michigan has allowed 2.3 at home. Ohio State runs the ball 61% of the time and more on the road, and are lost when they canât run the ball, good luck. Michigan running the ball 8% more at home for a 62%. I see them getting an early lead here and looking to hold onto that by trusting their defense. Ohio State had 5 first downs last week against Michigan State which is having a down year on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan does everything better that Michigan State does on defense, and I expect to see a lot of conservative play calling here. Both teams are excellent in the red zone, and on third downs with Michigan getting the edge allowing 22% conversions on third down and 21% in the red zone for TDâs. This is a key stat as they will play an offense that is better. The margin of victory is very small donât expect to see a lot of explosive plays from either coordinator.
This is the year Kentucky finally gets back to a bowl game, and beats Louisville all in one game. Iâve backed Kentucky quite a few times this year and watched quite a few games. RUN THE BALL! I think now that they have moved to QB Drew Barker they absolutely will. They donât want this kid doing too much, heâs already proven he will take care of the ball better than Patrick Towles did, and this will be a more efficient offense. The offense finally ran the ball over 60% last time, and I think they do it again here with the combo of Boom Williams and Jo Jo Kemp. Williams is the best back in the country than nobody has heard of. Heâs got explosive tendencies, and is a true difference maker against Louisville if they feed him the rock. This is the time to do it. You canât worry about injury or anything else like that there may not be a next game.
I like the fact that Kentuckyâs offense got their confidence back in a tune up game against Charlotte last time out and I think they will use that to their advantage here. Louisville comes in off a struggling defensive performance giving up 45 points to Pitt who is ranked far lower in offense than Kentucky, and Pitt does not have to face consistently good defenses like Kentucky in the SEC.
Louisville has struggled on the road in each game, and itâs hard to find their best win as being impressive. Do you call it their win over Virginia or Syracuse? Either way not much to get excited about. Kentucky has played extremely well at home, and has some very close games against Florida, and Auburn who Louisville played far worse against.
Louisville also has major struggles in red zone and third downs, and their offensive line is in shambles. Kentuckyâs defense on paper not as good as Louisvilleâs defense, but when they face weak running teams like Louisville who is 105th in rushing ypc they tend to play extremely well. Factor in the fact that Louisville cannot protect their QB allowing 43 sacks, and itâs hard to see Louisville scoring in the 20âs in this game on the road. Iâll take my chances with Kentucky who at least I can count on to run the ball well. As long as their coaches stick to that game plan with some play action I donât see how they can lose this game. Yet again I would not be shocked to see it happen as anything is possible from college coaches in these situations.
