Freddy releases his signatures max rating play of the day/week in college football Saturday in the Conference USA Championship. Freddy has gone a career 40-20 ATS in November+ in max rating plays during his career which included a nice victory on South Carolina +17.5 last week. Freddy also has enjoyed success during Championship week going 31-21 in his career including 5-1 on 5*+ ranked plays! Don't miss out on his other plays which include his teaser of the week (19-5 Last 24!), and his total of the week 40-26 career (72.7% career on totals in December). This play is also GUARANTEED or Sunday is FREE!
A lot of people are going to look at Western Kentucky, see what they did against Marshall (49-28 win), last yearâs CUSA team, and see what Southern Miss has done the last few seasons (4 total wins last 3), and see their loss 10-31 on the road against Marshall and automatically assume big win here for Western Kentucky, but I think Southern Miss will shock a lot of people here.
First of all the conference stats donât lie, and Southern Miss is better at stopping the run, running the ball, and pass defense. Add in the fact that Southern Miss has faced the 2 most difficult Conference USA opponents (LA Tech, and Marshall) on the road while Western Kentucky played them at home, and it makes me really respect them more. Shoot Western Kentucky even played Middle Tennessee at home, the last CUSA team with a winning record (there are only 5).
Both teams want to pass the ball here, but Southern Miss is much more balanced, and I see Western Kentucky giving up on the run early in this game. Southern Miss allowing 3.27 yards per carry in conference play and has a couple of former power 5 recruits on the defensive line. I mentioned early in the season how much I liked this team and Monken in his 3rd year coaching I knew it was going to be a good one and we have benefited along the way by backing this team. They still arenât getting any credit, because they are over shadowed by the sexy offense and sexy QB in Brandon Doughty. I like Southern Miss Nick Mullens just as much here, and heâs been better on the road with 21 TDâs and 2 interceptions. Speaking of turnovers, thatâs how Western Kentuckyâs defense gets by forcing 27, but Southern Miss has cleaned that up and is actually +6 in their last 3 games compared to Western Kentucky who is +1.
Looking into this further this is 1 of 3 solid defenses that Western Kentucky has faced from a pass defense perspective. Vanderbilt (who they should have lost to) held them to 14 points and are ranked 58th in sack %, 26th in opposing QB rating, and 38th in yards per pass attempt. LSU, 35th, 45th, and 24th. Both of those defenses play in a better conference, but Southern Miss is right there with 41, 22nd, and 21st, and they can stop the run. To put this in perspective in pass defense. Western Kentucky is ranked 96th, 66th, and 63rd, and have allowed a conference QB rating of 117 compared to Southern Miss 100. Keep in mind the home and away games in favor of Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky has played 3 teams in the top 35 in yards per play and are about to face their 4th. Southern Miss truly is a balanced team when you look at the defense we talked about and the fact that they can run the ball 5.59 yards per carry in conference play with Ito Smith averaging over 7. They are ranked 5th in yards per play in the nation. Western Kentucky has faced La Tech 21st (at home) allowed 38 points, LSU 25th (road) 48, Indiana 34th (road) 38. Iâd put this Southern Miss offense as the best out of those 3. When you take into consideration that they are a threat throwing and passing the ball. LSU, is one dimensional, Indiana is one dimensional, and La Tech not as good as we saw last week. I really like what Southern Miss did in two challenging non-conference games vs. Nebraska and Miss State and I think they will recapture the glory days of their Conference USA success.
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