I like Tulane here as East Carolina just came off a big home emotional win in OT over Marshall by 1 point. Now they go on the road to play Tulane for the first time and East Carolina has been just awful on the road and it's because of their defense allowing 47.1% on the road. Tulane on the other hand is allowing 40.7% and East Carolina has an offense that often struggles.
Now Tulane will also have the advantage as far as getting to the FT line and 2nd chance opportunities as they are +8 FTA and +2.6 rebound margin at home compared to East Carolina's -1.6 and -6.2 rebound margin. Tulane also can pressure defense and after their recent game they'll want to make up for it plenty. They force 15.2 TO/game and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss of 20+.
We were on this play large last time and isn't it ironic that these two meet again. Valpo won both regular season battles but it won't matter in the end when Butler takes this game. Butler has played two times since scoring over 70 in both and getting their confidence back while Valpo hasn't played as they had a bye in the tournament and are hosting this game once again. Butler still has Sr leadership in Guard Nored and a couple of players from last years roster. I think the way they lost here last time will allow them to come in and play a bit less tense. They got off to a terrible start and that won't happen again. As I said in the first match up it's a bad match up for Valpo because Butler has the best defense once again in the Horizon and are a real threat and Vegas certainly agrees making them favorites on the road against the conferences #1 seed.
