Despite revenge I do not think Western Kentucky can win this game. Their offense or defense is not good enough despite shooting 56% last night from the field in their upset of Denver. Denver was 200th in the nation in FG% defense and North Texas is 74th and when these teams met the first time Western Kentucky shot just 34.6%. While they'll likely shoot better I don't think they can over come all the other advantages the Mean Green have in this game.
Western Kentucky is just not a good shooting team to begin with 39.3% on the road and 39.5% overall. Both teams shoot more than 65% two pointers and do not rely on the three ball. North Texas is 83rd in 2 point defense while Western Kentucky is 116th. Pretty close but the difference is on offense and North Texas is ranked 217th to Western Kentucky's 302nd 2point offense. They are also much more capable shooting the three and even defending it as Western Kentucky is 306th in 3point % defense. What I like the best in this match up is North Texas is 69th in rebound % to Western Kentucky's 189th and Western Kentucky is shooting just 41.1% from 2 point range on the road. Meaning they will shoot worse than that for the game. If North Texas can win the rebound margin once again and get to the FT line more which I believe they will they should win this game by 10. I also like the fact that my formulas agree with North Texas.
Umass wins this game for me especially since they are home. Chaz Williams is the conference leader at 6.4 assists per game and he'll be the difference. Umass is the #2 scoring team in the league yet they scored 69 vs. Duquesne the first time in their road loss. They'll want major revenge at home. Despite shooting 48.4% from the field and allowing Duq to shoot just 40.9% they lost the game because they were -18 FTA and -17 turnovers. Two things that aboslutely won't get close to approaching those numbers. Those two stats are worth more than 20 points. UMASS has more control over what they can have an impact on and that's pure shooting and defense ability as well as rebounding where they held a +12 advantage in that game.
Why I don't think UMASS will turn the ball over 29 times? Well 15 is their average it's also Duq's average and they are +3.2 margin at home so going by the numbers they'll actually shoot the ball better play better defense and they will win the turnover battle. I don't see how Duquesne can cover in this game knowing this and just so you are aware they are also -9.7 in rebound margin on the road. They just are not a good road team and Umass having revenge from one of their worst games turning the ball over should result in them getting an easy win.
