Alabama -1 (4.4* NCAAB POD)
Alabama is really not getting enough credit here and I think they come out with a nice win.  Their length and athleticism are two things Creighton really have not seen this year.  Alabama has played three mid major tournament teams this year in VCU, Detroit and Creighton’s rival in the MVC Wichita and they have gotten three wins.  I think they get another one here.  Creighton and Alabama is about offense vs. defense and whichever wins that battle will win the game.
 
Alabama is 9-1 and 5-2 ATS when scoring more than 70+ points and Creighton allows 69.5ppg but more importantly Creighton is 1-8 ATS when they score less than 70 points.  Alabama allowing just 48.1 points per game with their 38.8 % FG defense.  They have held 29 of their 32 opponents including 20 of 21 under 70 points.  The only three games they allowed more than 70 were on the road at Kentucky, Kansas State and earlier in the season at Dayton.  The reason they are so good keeping teams low is they have one of the best perimeter defenses.
 
Alabama is #4 in the nation holding opponents to 28.3% from beyond the arch.  Creighton 42.5% of the three will have a hard time scoring points in this one.   Still not convinced?  Alabama has faced plenty of top scoring programs and kept them well under their season average including Oakland (7th in ppg) -23, Wichita (18th) -16.3, Florida (21st) -15.3 and -10.3, Purdue (61st) -16 from their average.  I think Alabama will have advantage inside with their athleticism (Creighton ranked 160th in 2 point defense) which will lead to plenty of opportunities on the glass and second chance opportunities.  Creighton allows opponents to shoot the ball 3.5 more times per game.  4 of the 5 losses Creighton has have been to slower tempo teams.  Only 1 was in the Top 100 and that was Evansville.
 
Belmont +160 (2* bonus)
Belmont is an interesting team now making their 5th appearance in 7 years so it’s nothing new to them but they have a ton of Sr’s that would not be satisfied losing and just “getting to the tournament.”  They’d like an upset win or even two.  Belmont led by Sr. Drew Hanlen who shoots 48.1% from three point range goes up against Georgetown who is the #1 3 point defense.  Georgetown has lost the last two years as a higher seed to Ohio and VCU.
 
Georgetown’s 3 point defense is a mirage.  The Big East has 1 top 100 3point % offense in Seton Hall who beat Georgetown 73-55 at home.  Belmont averages 9 three pointers a game and has Ian Clark to pair with Hanlen who also shoots over 40% from three.  This is by far the best 3 point shooting team Georgetown has faced all year.  But they should be more worried about transition points. Belmont is also 7th in the country in 2 point %.  I also think Belmont has size that people don’t realize in Sr’s Saunders 6-10 250 and Hedspeth 6-9 235 that will allow them to play good defense and force Georgetown to honor the paint on defense allowing for good looks from the perimeter.

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