Going with the Jays today as I think it's a pretty even matchup offensively with both teams having similar OPS vs. RHP last year and to this point this year. The biggest difference is Toronto is just a different animal at home thus far vs. RHP they are hitting .260 with a 5.82 runs per 9 at home so far while TB is .216 4.10 on the road. What I'm more confident in is the Blue Jays bullpen and starting pitcher for Tampa's.
First of all Hellickson looked terrible in his road match up with Boston posting a 9.00 ERA giving up 3 HR. He's visited Toronto twice and in neither game did he go deep into the game meaning the Rays bullpen will have to be relied upon once again and they are a major league worst with a 9.31 ERA compared to the Jays 4.38 bullpen ERA. Alvarez on the other hand has been a lot sharper this year in his home starts he has a WHIP under 1.00 in 2 starts vs. capable offenses of the Orioles and the Red Sox, a team that beat up on Hellickson. Rays are 7-19 in their last 26 as a road dog +110 to +150.
Love the Rangers here despite Yu Darvish allowing a .450 OPS. He's already proven he can get himself out of jams and that's a valuable skill. Wilk I"m not so confident on the other hand from Detroit. The guy posted a FIP over 4 in 100 innings in AAA and now he goes up against Texas who is #1 with a .956 OPS vs. LHP and they have been just as good on the road with a .973 OPS on the year. To me this game comes down to which pitcher is better and which bullpen holds the lead and that to me is Texas as they have 2nd best bullpen ERA to the Tigers 14th. Texas is 40-16 in their last 56 game #1's and 62-19 in their last 81 as a favorite 24-5 in their last 29 as a road favorite.
