This seems like a real trendy pick. How could the first place Dodgers lose to the last place Cubs. Well it is at Wrigley and Billingsley weakness this year has been the long ball, but Maholm has given up more HR/9 than Billingsley and has better numbers at Wrigley and vs. the Cubs than you may think. Heâs got a 2.30 ERA lifetime at Wrigley with a 3-2 record. Cubs are 28th in OPS vs. RHP, and are 26th vs. the fastball. Billingsley uses 5 pitches, but the fast ball is by far his favorite. Billingsley has been a better day pitcher over the years, 3.41 ERA over his last 30 day starts before this year and over that same period heâs enjoyed a 2.99 ERA during May. Cubs hitters have 69 AB .174 average and .430 OPS. Thatâs simply in one word domination.
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Cubbies are 5-10 during day games this year and now they suddenly have bullpen issues with Marmol possibly no longer the closer. They send Paul Maholm to the mound but I wouldnât be comfortable heâs 0-5 with a 5.33 ERA in 8 starts vs. the Dodgers. Heâs pitched well in his last two starts, but he faced struggling offenses in the Reds and Phillies who are 23rd and 26th in OPS vs. LHP. He has struggled big time to the Cardinals and Brewers who are 18th and 20th while the Dodgers come in 14th vs. LHP. Maholm has a 6.30 ERA during day starts this year and the Dodgers are 11th vs. the slider, a pitch Maholm loves to go to after his not so over powering 87mph fastball. Dodgers should put up runs and I think Billingsley can get the ball to the quality relievers.
