Rangers have lost three in a row and yet they are still 41-17 in their last 58 following a loss. I see them avoiding losing 4 in a row tonight in what looks like a mismatch on the mound and in the bullpen. For starters Derek Holland dominated the Indians last year in 2 of his 3 starts posting a 16 IP 1 ER over those two starts (1 home, 1 road). Secondly, though the Indians have heated up with their bats they still continue to struggle at home despite 6 runs last night. Most of their success has been on the road as they are hitting just .190 vs. LHP at home this year. They should struggle tonight as they have a .203 average and a .589 OPS vs. Holland over a combined 64 AB.
Texas on the other hand has a .285 average on the road vs. RHP and they got to Derek Lowe on the road in Atlanta last year. Indians have struggled out of the bullpen 5.13 ERA at home to the Rangers road 2.30 bullpen so the advantage is there too. Lowe tossed 5 innings gave up 7 hits and 3 ER vs. Texas last year and the Rangers have 73 combined at bats with a .301 average against him in their careers. Lowe's numbers are good thus far witha 2.27 overall ERA but a 4.60 xFIP should scare many as he is only striking out 2.56 K/9. Indians are just 5-21 in their last 26 meeting with Texas and 5-14 in their last 19 home games vs. a LH starter. I think the better Derek in this one is from Texas or should I say Holland?
Cardinals continue to play good baseball but the Astros are surprising many in the young season. Jaime Garcia has been spot on this year on the road posting great numbers. That is out of the ordinary for Garcia and I see it ending today for him. Garcia had 3 road starts vs. Houston last year and he struggled in every one going 0-3 with a 1.53 WHIP and 6.28 ERA. He is out performing his raw stats so far this year as he is holding onto a 1.43 WHIP and a 2.78 ERA. Those two numbers do not make sense as his xFIP is 3.66 and should be higher.
Bud Norris on the other hand had 2 brilliant home starts last year vs. the Cardinals and is 8-2 in his last 10 vs. St. Louis as the Cardinals might even be without Carlos Beltran tonight and are surely without Berkman, who is 2-6 with a HR off Norris. I think this is a great value play because sooner or later the Cardinals are going to struggle without punch in the middle of the line up and why not against Norris who only gave up 2 ER in 14 IP at home last year to the Cardinals.
