The Marlins have won 6 straight and now everyone will be jumping on their band wagon, but I'm still not sold in certain situations. They face off against lefty Wandy Rodriguez who they own just a .684 OPS against in 114 AB as he's 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in his 5 home starts vs. the Marlins. Marlins have gotten it done primarily with pitching not their hitting yet. Marlins are 26th in OPS vs. LHP and I think it will be a real challenge for them to get on the board especially since Reyes is just 2-18 vs. Rodriguez. Houston on the other hand has been on fire themselves and are 10th in OPS vs. RHP and they have 121 AB vs. Zambrano with a .347 average and a 1.027 OPS. I know it's a "new" Zambrano, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him return to the old Z against a familiar opponent.
Arroyo has been solid and it's because he's using 5 different pitches. The Brewers are ranked 15th, 26th, 17th, 25th, and 18th vs. those pitch types and their offense is 29th in the last 7 days with a .571 OPS. They are struggling big time and I don't see it getting better today against Arroyo who the Brewers have just a .213 average and .636 OPS against. Gallardo on the other hand goes up against the Reds who have .360 average and a 1.043 OPS against over 139 at bats. The Reds have been hitting much better lately and are 8th in the last 7 days with a .745 OPS. I see the reds winning this game.
Our big play of the day is on the Cardinals. I believe Lance Lynn is in line for another quality start as the Dbacks bats have been struggly just .212 with 2.61 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are back home but Lynn has been great on the road this year and I just have more confidence in the Cardinals producing runs. Cardinals are ranked #2 in OPS vs. LHP and Saunders off to a fast, but lucky start with his .245 BABIP and ERA under 2 has only faced bottom tier offenses ranked 28,26,23, 29 and the Braves ranked 6th in OPS vs. LHP but were 29th a year ago. Saunders has to go up agaisnt the best LHP hitting team in the National League and the Cardinals are also 5th in BABIP on the road so I don't see Saunders getting lucky this time especially since he's been working with 3 pitches and 88% of his pitches have been fastball or change up. It's been working for him, but that's not hard to figure out in the majors and the Cardinals are 3rd in the league vs. fastball, 2nd vs. the change up and 3rd vs. the curve ball.
Cardinals are also 12-4 in their last 16 road games vs. a LH starter and Beltran is 4-7 with a HR vs. Saunders who had a 4.42 ERA at home last year. Cardinals continue to hit with or without players and Berkman expected back this weekend shouldn't hurt them at all in this game. Their bullpen is over a run better on the road than the Dbacks is at home so I see that in their favor as well. Arizona is now just 5-11 in their last 16 as a dog and really should have been swept over the weekend by the Mets.
