This is for the first game in the match up of Colby Lewis vs. Wei-Yen Chen. Chen has been great this season although his Xfip suggests that will end soon I still believe he has the advantage against the Rangers today who have never faced him. If Chen uses his change up more as his second pitch he should be in great shape as that is the Rangers worst pitch to hit they are 16th vs. the change up. I also feel the Orioles will be pulling out all the stops to win game #1. They are 8-1 during day games this year and have a .844 OPS in 68 combined at bats vs. Lewis. Their OPS is 4th during day games and their ERA as it is overall is in the top 10.
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Tigers -120 4.5* MLB POD
Bartolo Colon has faced an average 18th ranked OPS vs. RHP in his 7 starts including facing the Mariners 3 times. The Tigers are ranked 11th in OPS vs. RHP while Oakland is 29th with a .633 OPS. Scherzer is off a good start and now has 3 of 6 quality starts. I think heâs due to have another after facing some tough teams and an average opponent of 11.8 in terms of OPS vs. RHP he gets to face Oakland who may be without their best hitter in Cespedes.Â
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Scherzer to me actually has better numbers than Colon as he has a 10.34 K/9 ratio with an unlucky .407 BABIP. Bringing his 6.32 ERA down to an xFIP of 3.82. He faces the Aâs who are 7th in the league in striking out and 15th in walks so I expect a quality start from him here tonight. Meanwhile Colon has been more lucky than not with a .243 BABIP. Heâs throwing 87% fastballs which to me is a huge red flag. The Tigers are 12th in the league at hitting the fastball, but they are 6th over the last 14 days and 5th over the last week. Hitters can really get going when they know there is nearly a 90% chance they are going to get fast balls.
