Don't miss out after a 2-0 day yesterday we come with another play of the day where we have gone 25-10 this year! Both plays are backed with full in depth analysis for your betting confidence. As always I personally bet these two so bet with confidence!



Pirates -130 (2.5* BONUS PLAY)
I like the Pirates in this spot despite their 30th OPS vs. RHP this year as Bud Norris has a 1.42 WHIP over his last 3 starts and the Pirates over 128 AB have a .788 OPS against him.  Norris is also a different guy on the road posting a 7.13 ERA on the road and a 2.29 ERA at home.  Over his career he has a 4.04 ERA vs. the Pirates (8 starts) while Jason McDonald had a 1.80 ERA in 4 starts vs. the Astros last year.  Houston is also just 13-40 in their last 53 road games and McDonald has been a stud at home posting a 1.86 ERA through three starts.  It’s not fluke because he posted a 3.19 over 16 starts a year ago including a 2.86 ERA in May.  He faces the Astros at the right time because their bats seem to be coming back down to earth.  Over their last 5 games they are hitting just .189 and scoring 1.72 runs per 9 vs. RHP while on the season they are ranked 5th vs. the fastball a pitch McDonald relies on 60% of the time over the last 7 days they are ranked 28th.  They are ranked 26th vs. McDonald’s second pitch the slider so I expect McDonald to produce some good results tonight.  Pirates offensively have been improving with their bats and they are 10-1 in their last 11 following a loss.
 
Cardinals -133 (5* MLB POD)
I’ve been on the Cardinals band wagon all year and I’m a big backer to Jaime Garcia when he’s pitching at home where over the last 3 years he posts a 2.17 ERA.  During that time he’s posted an ERA over 4 on the road and he faces a Braves team he’s kept in check especially at home with a 1.00 WHIP and 2.07 ERA.  Braves collectively have just a .626 OPS vs. Garcia and their bats that have them ranked 9th vs. lefties are starting to also come back to earth.  Remember this team was 29th with a .642 OPS last year vs. lefties. 
 
Speaking of lefties the Cardinals are #1 with a .856 OPS and face Matt Minor a guy that’s been struggling big time.  He posts a 6.75 ERA on the road and 5.82 over 12 career road starts before this year. Cardinals going for their 8th straight home win and this won’t be an easy place to pitch especially with Berkman returning and the Cardinals are lighting it up .302, 7.36 runs per 9 vs. LHP this year at home.  Minor also relies 77% of the time on his fast ball and change up and the Cardinals are ranked 1st against the change up and 3rd against the fast ball.  His curveball that he throws 10% of the time is a big risk as the Cardinals are ranked 2nd vs. that pitch this year.  He’s allowed a .324 BABIP which is a bit unlucky, but the Cardinals are #1 .331 BABIP and are even better at home #1 in the league .365 and they are hitting 24% line drives.  He also struggles giving up the long ball.  Well that’s more bad news as the Cardinals lead the National League with 40HR.  I don’t see this start ending in a good way for Minor and the Braves bullpen has really struggled at times this year so it’s a big question mark if they can pick him up.
 

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