Jon Lester has been his usual self on the road and if he could only duplicate those starts at Fenway the Red Sox would be a lot better off. He'll make his 4th career start at Philly tonight and carries a 2.65 ERA on the road over 5 starts this year. I believe that's about to improve as he faces the Phillies who are 16th in OPS vs. LHP. In Lester's 3 starts in Philly he carries a 0.42 ERA and 0.71 WHIP with a 21:5 K/BB ratio. He doesn't have to deal with Utley or Howard which could be a bad thing since they are lefties any way but that takes out the pop in the line up and Lester has held Philly hitters to a .582 OPS and a .209 average over 91 combined at bats.
Joe Blanton will try to continue his success at home where he posts a 2.57 ERA this year as he faces the Red Sox who are 5th in OPS vs. RHP this year. Blanton has faced some bad teams which are a result of his success in my opinion. His 4 home starts have been against 24th, 12th, 23rd, and 22nd ranked teams in OPS vs. RHP. Even his road starts are not that impressive facing 30, 17, 28 and 7. Boston despite all the injuries continue to put runs on the board and Gonzalez has to continue to step up and he is 7-16 vs. Blanton with 2 HR. As we said yesterday in our Red Sox +135, the Sox have a major advantage out of the bullpen compared to the Phillies. Expect it to play a factor tonight. Boston is 67-21 in their last 88 inter league games vs. RH starter and 53-18 when Lester pitches on 4 days rest.
John Danks has struggled to start the season. Facing the Cubs is just what he needs as he's faced three top 5 OPS teams vs. LHP already and the Cubs are dead last in the league with a .603 OPS. Danks also has dominated the Cubbies before posting a 1.38 ERA in his career at Wrigley Field. White Sox have also been one of the best interleague teams over the past few years as they are 43-16 in their last 59 and 21-6 in their last 27 inter league road games. Ryan Dempster has pitched great to start the season and that is why we are getting great odds here, but I doubt that will continue. He is primarily a 2 pitch pitcher and his velocity is actually a little down this year and Dempster has largely benefited from facing the National League. 3 of his 6 starts are against teams ranked in the bottom third of the league in hitting. Lastly the White Sox have a huge bullpen advantage posting a 1.90 ERA on the road this year while the Cubs have a 4.18 at home and a 6.15 bullpen ERA over their last 10.
