The Rangers are off a loss where they are 41-13 in their last 54 in that following that situation. After a loss they are scoring 6.34 runs per 9 vs. RHP. They are the #1 OPS team vs. RHP and Jordan Lyles is not an unknown for the Rangers line up as he has 2 starts from 2011 when he posted a 1.62 WHIP and 5.54 ERA. He faces a Rangers team that's been consistently good this year scoring 6.59 runs per 9 over their last 10 and 5.69 per 9 vs. RHP on the road this year. Lyles is not particularly tricky to figure out as 84% of his pitches are fast balls and curve balls. Rangers are #4 vs. the fast ball and are an overwhelming #1 vs. the curve ball this year. Unless Lyles changes something the Rangers are going to score runs.
Colby Lewis on the other hand should be salivating at an opportunity to face the Astros line up on the road. Lewis had a great year last year on the road, but is off to a slower start this year. That will happen when you face four top 11 OPS vs. RHP teams as he's faced the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 11th ranked OPS teams. If that was not enough Lewis has a 2.28 ERA over 4 starts vs. the Astros including a 1.72 at Houston where he has never walked a batter over 2 starts. The Astros are hitting just .218 and scoring 2.35 runs per 9 vs. RHP over their last 10 games that has seen them drop fast to 25th with a .685 OPS vs. RHP. They are also just 2-14 in Lyles last 16 starts and 15-37 in their last 52 as a dog. I like that the Rangers come off a loss and they get a game 3 (rubber game) to win the series against their in state rival. Rangers are 15-5 in their last 20 match ups with the Astros.
These are some great odds for the Reds and Johny Cueto who is 21-87 in his last 29 starts on 4 days rest. The Reds were among the best vs. LHP and during day games last year and they'll face CC Sabathia at 1pm today. Though the Reds are an inconsistent bunch with the bats I give them an edge on the mound. Reds batters have seen Sabathia and have a better idea up there than the Yankees who have just 49 AB vs. Cueto with a .163 average and .515 OPS.
The Reds are also backed by one of the better bullpens and they have played well during day games once again 14-5 to start the year compared to the Yankees 6-6. Cueto has been one of the better day hurlers posting a 1.11 ERA through 5 starts this year and has a 2.01 ERA in 9 starts a year ago and in 2010 he has a 2.19 ERA. Sabathia can be bad at times during day starts but overall posts a 3.00 ERA the last 3 years during day starts. He's definitely beatable and with these odds I'm backing the Reds.
