Orioles +125 3* play
This play was nearly our play of the day, but the way the Jays have been hitting I’m not quite comfortable with that as our POD.  Despite the Jays winning 6 of 7 averaging 6.7 runs and 14 HR in their last 7 home games I’m going with the Orioles to bounce back from a 4 game losing streak.  Jason Hammel has been the better pitcher thus far and has the better stats compared with Brandon Morrow.  Hammel is only giving up .49 HR/9 and only 1 Blue Jay has a home run off him in 85 AB where they have a .567 OPS.  Hammel is 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA in 7 career starts vs. the Blue Jays and has more consistency than Morrow.  If he uses his fastball and change up he should have no problem handing the ball off to the Orioles dominating road bullpen (1.18 ERA road).  Morrow can’t say the same as the blue birds have a 5.43 ERA at home.
 
Morrow also has struggled big time against the Orioles and his recent start against the Rangers is cause for concern because of his history of inconsistency.  The Orioles have 106 AB with a .274 average and .946 OPS with 8 HR off Morrow.  Adam Jones who is riding a 20 game hit streak and was 3-3 with 2HR yesterday is 8-20 with 2 HR off Morrow.  Morrow also has never pitched well in Toronto.  This year he posts 4.36 ERA at home compared to his 2.45 road EAR.  In 2010 it was even worse with a 6.31 ERA at home and a 3.07 ERA away.  He’s just a better pitcher away from home.  The advantage the Orioles have on the mound, bullpen and the offensive numbers against Morrow make this a solid play.
 
Reds/Pirates U7 -110 4.4* MLB POD
Johnny Cueto looks to bounce back from a recent poor start and he should be licking his chops against the Pirates who are ranked 29th with a .617 OPS vs. RHP.  Cueto is 7-0 with a 1.53 ERA in his last 8 at PNC Park and 9-1 with a 1.87 ERA in his last 12 vs. the Pirates.  Pirates have just a .639 OPS in 123 AB vs. Cueto.  The Reds who have been on fire may have a tough time on Wednesday scoring runs of their own.
 
A.J. Burnett takes the mound and he’s allowed 2 runs or less in all but 1 start this year.  He’s faced 5 top 15 hitting teams in OPS vs. RHP and the Reds are actually the lowest of all the teams he’s faced at 26th .691 OPS vs. RHP.  Reds have limited AB vs. Burnett at 45 with a .178 average and .477 OPS.  That should make this a tight game throughout and given that both bullpens have been outstanding this year I feel the under is our best bet for Wednesday.  After all the Pirates have gone under that total in 19 of their last 28 home games vs. RH starter with 2 of them being pushes.

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