The Nationals send their ace to the mound on Sunday against the Braves and Tommy Hanson who is 2-6 in his last 8 starts on Sunday. Hanson has not pitched well during the day and the Nationals have had success against him when they are healthy. Their players own 107 AB and a .802 OPS against Hanson while Gio Gonzalez in 1 start dominated the Braves who had been hitting lefties hard this year, but own just a .188 average over their last 10 games. They could be without Brian McCann today after getting hit in the left knee and I'll jump on this line early thinking he won't play today. The Braves are an entirely different team offensively when he's not in the line up. Nationals are also 25-9 in their last 34 vs. a starter with a WHIP > 1.30 so even if he does start I'm confident in the home team over Atlanta during this early bird game. Braves are 6-10 during day games while the Nationals are 11-6 and own the 2nd best day ERA.
Arizona will face a LHP where they are much better hitter, 10th with a .736 OPS. Justin Upton got a mental day off yesterday and he should return on Sunday and play a huge factor as he's 2-4 with a HR 2 BB and a 1.917 OPS in his career vs. ERic Stultz whose raw stats raise a very large red flag. Stultz has 3.28 K/9 with 3.28 BB/9. A 1:1 ratio is very rare in its own right but he's also been extremely lucky .247 BABIP. Vegas knows it can get public bettors off guard with ERA stats, but looking deeper there is a reason Stultz was dropped earlier this year. When the majority of your balls are getting put in play things are bound to go wrong. He's also walking a lot of guys and his ERA has stayed low because of the lucky .247 BABIP (one of the lowest in the leagues). Well now he faces a Diamondbacks team that is top 10 in K"s, but when they put the ball in play they are 6th in average. They also walk quite a bit and are 8th in BB/K ratio. It's not a good match up for Stultz here today and I think the Dbacks will continue their trend of 13-3 in their last 16 as a road favorite -110 to -150.
If they win they'll need another solid performance from Trevor Cahill who gave up just 2 hits and 1 ER vs. the Padres earlier in the year. The Padres are 28th with a .651 OPS vs. RHP and Cahill is getting hitters to hit the ball on the ground 62% of the time which is second to only Derek Lowe. The Diamondbacks are scoring over a run more per 9 vs. LHP than the Padres are vs. RHP and both bullpens are even on home/away splits. However, the Padres bullpen has been struggling with an ERA over 7 in their last 5 and 6.67 in their last 10. Cahill has been solid on the road this year with a 3.26 ERA and I think it continues in a ballpark that is pitcher friendly while the Dbacks will get another win vs. a LHP and the Padres will continue their awful run of 18-48 in their last 66 as an under dog.
