I love the Braves here as road dogs as Tim Hudson is 9-4 in his last 13 as a road dog. More importantly he's pitched well vs. the Marlins with 2 of 3 quality starts last year while posting an overall 3.54 ERA. Anibal Sanchez had an ERA over 9 with a 1.97 WHIP against the Braves a year ago and has been stellar thus far. That's why we are getting great odds here, but the Braves line up is red hot vs. Sanchez the combined starters are 35-97 vs. Sanchez with a .361 average and I look for that to continue tonight.
The Marlins on the other hand are 51-185 vs. Hudson for a .275 and the reigning player of the month in Stanton is just 2-12 against him. Hudson also has a ton of quality starts this year as does Sanchez, but Sanchez has faced only two top 15 teams in OPS vs. RHP. Braves have hit well during night games and are ranked 7th with a .751 OPS while the Marlins are 20th with a .707. On top of all of that the Braves have a better bullpen.
I've had my eye on Shields for a while now and once again he's a dog and I'm going to back him going up against Andy Pettitte who I'm still not sold on him. Pettitte has faced 3 teams in the bottom third in OPS vs. LHP through his first 4 starts and the Rays are scoring 4.76 runs per 9 vs. LHP. I don't think they'll miss Longoria tonight who was 2-18 vs. Pettitte anyway. Look out for Pena who has 6 HR in 40AB. Overall the Rays have a .939 OPS in 138 AB against the south paw.. Shields is a rare pitcher right now he's top 3 with a 59% ground ball % which is a good quality to have at Yankee Stadium. He's also 11th in K/9. Unfortunately for Shields he's got a .319 BABIP which is really unlucky. I see that luck changing today as the Rays take one from the pinstripes.
