Rangers -170 5* MLB POD
We are getting pretty good odds considering the Rangers have a better bullpen by nearly a run on the year, by 1.06 on the road vs. SD at home, and by 2.01 in the last 10 games.  The Rangers are also +2.48 runs per 9 vs. RHP compared with the Padres vs. LHP.  A lot of that goes into the ball park you are in as it is no coincidence that the Padres are the worst in the league in hitting and the Rangers are 1st.  However, the Rangers are still +1.3 runs on the road vs. RHP compared with the Padres vs. LHP at home.  To go along with that we have the better pitcher on the mound in Matt Harisson who has been on fire and posts a 6-1 record on the road with a 3.51 ERA.  Padres are just 4-18 vs. LHP this year.  Along with that they are 27th in OPS vs. LHP (.657 OPS), 28th at home (.632) and 29th in night games (.646).
 
The Rangers face Jason Marquis who will make his 3rd start with the Padres.  He owns a 1.46 ERA in his first 2 vs. SEA/SF two teams that struggle to put runs up on the board.  We get value because of that ERA, as well as the questionable status of Josh Hamilton.  I firmly believe Hamilton will play and I’ll ink this bet before the line increases and we lose value.  Marquis has been horrible and Beltre and Young are a combined 10-23 off him.  Marquis posts a 1.62 WHIP in his two starts with the Padres so his 1.46 ERA is clearly lucky.  He had 7 previous starts with the Twins and only 2 were of quality.  He’s given up 19 BB on the season but only 22 K’s.  His 3.69 BB/9 is a reason for concern as he gives up 1.94 HR/9 with just 4.27 K/9.  What is saving him is his 54.4% ground ball rate.  The Rangers however are 23rd in ground balls which isn’t always good if you are popping out, but when you hit the ball in the air against Marquis it’s usually not a good thing.  Rangers are also 5th in line drives so I’m excited to see them score some runs tonight.  The Brewers are 24th in ground balls and scored 8 off Marquis of late.
 
Reds -110 2.2* play
It’s hard to fade the Reds right now so we will back them here playing the Indians despite Lowe’s great ERA at home.  The Reds have plenty of experience against Lowe, 172 AB with a .285 average and .809 OPS so I like them to beat the Indians again after they swept them at home last week.  Latos has really come around since his 8.22 ERA over his first three starts and is 5-0 in his last 10 posting a 3.73 ERA.  Lowe continues to throw his sinker and get ground balls, but the Reds are red hot right now and don’t hit the ball on the ground that really is not their mo.  They’re 27th with 42.5% ground ball percentage and this team is 1st in OPS in June with a .830 OPS while the Indians are 25th.
 
This series is at home for the Indians but they haven’t played well here all year long posting a .668 OPS ranked 26th.  The Reds outscored the Indians 24-9 last week and a huge reason is the bullpen.  The Reds are ranked 2nd with a 2.60 ERA out of the bullpen this year while the Indians are 28th with a 4.48 and a 6.41 over the last 10 games overall.  I think Votto and Phillps remain red hot here and the Reds bullpen does what it’s done all year which is shut down opposing offenses.

Where to find Freddy?