Red Sox will face a pitcher in Carlos Villanueva who is on a hot streak posting a 1.59 ERA in his 3 starts, but against Boston the story has been far different as they have a .985 OPS in 41 AB vs. the reliever who is now starting. I mention he's a reliever because it's unlikely especially with his 4.83 BB/9 ratio that he'll go deep into this game. That means the game will likely fall in the hands of the Blue Jays 23rd ranked bullpen. That bullpen has been even worse since Villanueva left it and over their last 10 games they post a 5.47 ERA.
Boston will rely on Aaron Cook to continue to cook up some ground balls with his 58.8% ground ball percentage he would be among the top 3 if he qualified with enough innings. Toronto is now without Jose Bautista making it even easier for Cook to pitch effectively. The Jays have faced 2 pitchers in 3 games that are among the top 10 in GB% and those pitchers post a combined 1.35 ERA and all three starts were of quality. I expect the same from Cook who posts a 1.23 ERA over his last three starts w/ 0.77 WHIP. Toronoto is also 10-27 in their last 37 road games vs. a winning team while Boston is 8-2 in their last 10 home games as a favorite -110 to -150 and 15-6 in their last 21 overall. Lastly Andy Fletcher will be calling balls and strikes and the Jays are just 5-19 in their last 24 with him back there.
I've been drinking the Pirates kool-aid for a while now and I'll continue with AJ Burnett on the mound who posts a 6-0 with a 2.10 ERA in 9 home starts. He's backed by an offense that has been tearing up the majors for nearly a month. Nobody really expected it but the Pirates are #1 in OPS in the month of July led by the trio of McCutchen, Walker and Alvarez. Alvarez 7 HR and 21 RBI last 17 games, Walker .459 average last 19 and McCutchen .451 12HR and 32 RBI in his last 33 games. Zambrano has had his struggles against the Pirates too as the lineup has .956 OPS in 88 AB off him. Garret Jones is 6-14 with 2 HR and McCutchen and Alvarez are 9-20 combined.
The real story here though is the bullpen of the Pirates which is so much better than the Marlins. If they get a lead past the 6 inning mark you can forget about it. I like the advantage the offense, the bullpen and the starting pitching in this match up which is why I made it a play. Over the last 10 games the Marlins are scoring +3.4 more runs per 9 innings vs. RHP and they both face righties on the mound to start. Zambrano has struggled overall before his start in WAshington posting an 8.00 ERA in his last 6 and a 6.50 ERA in his last 4 starts away.
