Two major reasons why I like the Angels today. First I was not surprised last night when they got shut out by the lefty Scott Diamond. The Indians have been awful vs. lefties, but they are scoring nearly 1.5 more runs per 9 vs. RHP as they are 3rd IN OPS vs. RHP this year while Minnesota facing the righty Justin Masterson is 19th. The Indians actually score more runs per 9 vs. RHP on the road at 5.03 than at home.
The second major reason is Twins starter Samuel Deduno despite the Indians never facing him they should be able to get on base plenty. Deduno has always struggled with control and he only throw two pitches for the most part. A fastball and curve ball and he's walking 6.19 guys per 9 in his 3 starts. Well the Indians can clean up today as they are 1st in the majors in walks and should be able to take advantage. Deduno likely won't go deep in the game meaning the bullpen will have to play a major part and the Twins bullpen has an ERA over 5 in their last 10. The Twins are also 17-40 in their last 57 home games as an under dog and 6-20 in their last 26 Saturday games. I look for Justin Masterson to improve on his last two starts in Minnesota where he posts a 0.66 ERA. He won't have to go against Trevor Plouffe who went on the DL yesterday and was 3-8 vs. Masterson. Masterson is 7th in GB% behind his teammate Derek Lowe who leads the league. I bring that up because in two starts against the Twins this year he has 15.2 IP and 1 ER. The Twins have faced a RHP in the top 13 in GB% 4 times. (Lowe 2x, Henderson Alvarez 1x, and James Shields). Those pitchers combined for a 0.88 ERA. I like Mastersons' chances on Saturday against the Twins.
These odds are just right. TB has a .497 OPS in 128 AB with a .156 average vs. CJ Wilson who is 3-1 with a 2.67 ERA in 5 career starts vs. the Rays. TB is struggling of late going 1-19 with runners in scoring position over the last two games. Matt Moore makes a road start where he has a 5.36 ERA this year and he'll have to face an Angels team that's 2nd int he month of July in OPS and is 7th in OPS vs. LHP while the Rays are 24th vs. LHP in OPS. He's not helped by his bullpen at least on the road where it has a 4.64 ERA. The Angels have a 2.41 bullpen ERA at home but may not even need it. They are also +2.56 runs per 9 vs. LHP compared to the Rays over the last 10 games.
