To me the oddsmakers are getting away with what the public will misinterpret each teamâs quality based on previous games. Kent State struggled if you look at the score against Kentucky and Buffalo was pretty decent against Georgia. So your average Joe would pound Buffalo at home and thatâs what is happening which has created tons of value for us on the side of Kent State. Letâs not forget where these two teams were predicted to finish according to oddsmakers to win the MAC. Kent State was +1000 while Buffalo was +2500. Now much changes throughout a season but itâs still early to be making these types of statements and this line is basically stating that Buffalo is better than Kent State and I disagree.
For one Kentucky vs. Kent State was much closer and was a close game in the third. Missed red zone opportunities and missed field goals were the main reasons, but Kent State still lost 47-14 and that has given us value here in this line because Vegas knows the public will be on Buffalo. Kent Stateâs defense will only improve in this game as they just did not match up well with Kentucky. Kentucky ran a no huddle offense and beat Kent State on big plays down field. Buffalo does not have an experienced QB or run that type of offense as they mainly rely on Branden Oliver who has been spectacular with 349 yards rushing.
However, Kent State has everyone back on their defensive line including Roosevelt Nix. This unit helped lead a team that finished 4th against the run and 3rd for tackles for loss last year. This is an aggressive defense that will come up with turnovers (6 in their first game). They have an excellent pass rush and can get off the field on third down. Buffalo on the other hand is far more prone to the turnover and has a hard time forcing them with just 13 last year. Add in that Kent State QB Spencer Keith has not thrown an interception in 7 straight games and we should see Kent State win this battle. He completed 65% of his passes for 227 yards against Kentucky proving that Kent State can have a balanced offense with the rushing of Dri Archer who is averaging 211 all purpose yards. Buffalo allowed too much offense to Morgan State allowing 25 first downs and 170 total yards to RB Travis Davidson who is no Archer.
Bottom line I think Kent State has the more opportunistic defense, a more balanced offense, and heck the oddsmakers thought this team would be significantly better than Buffalo this year. Even this season Kent State looks better in key situations like 3rd down. Buffalo is allowing 50% conversions while Kent State is allowing 41% (they allowed just 35% last year). Offensively Kent State is better converting 50% of itâs opportunities thus far while Buffalo despite the success only converted 33% of their 3rd downs this year. I didnât even get to special teams which play a critical role in any game like this. Buffalo lacks any type of return game and Kent State has arguably one of the nationâs best punters in Matt Rinehart, a 2 time ALL MAC selection. He had 24 punts inside the 20 last year and is backed by a Kent State coverage unit that was one of the best (17.5 yards per return). With Archer returning kicks and the new addition of speedy Adeyemi on punts there is reason
